Bristol City v Swansea tips: Championship best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship
2pts Bristol City to win Draw No Bet at 10/11 (MansionBet)
Bristol City got their first win in 13 league games in midweek, beating Reading 3-2 away from home, and deservedly so.
Nigel Pearson’s side were one of the teams I liked for relegation based on what we had seen last season and the lack of incomings in the summer, and my opinion hasn’t changed drastically, I think they will still be in a dog-fight, but I like them in this game.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Bristol City 5/4 | Draw 23/10 | Swansea 9/4
We are only three games into the season so can’t get carried away, but the Robins have impressed on the underlying number front, creating plenty of chances in matches.
They racked up 1.62 xGF in their opener, a 1-1 draw with Blackpool, before notching 1.04 in defeat at Middlesbrough and 2.18 against Reading in midweek.
It is a small sample size, but their average of 1.61 xGF per game means they will create a few decent opportunities in this match, and importantly, in two of their three games they have limited their opponents to less than 1.0 xGA.
They face a Swansea side in a bit of a rut, and one that hasn’t yet got going under Russell Martin.
The Swans are winless through three league games, losing two and drawing the other, but it is their performances that a hugely concerning, not just the results.
A 2-1 defeat at Blackburn on the opening day saw them allow a whopping 3.97 xGA and generate just 0.85 xGF.
That was followed by a dull goalless draw with Sheffield United in which neither team created anything of note (xG: SWA 0.27 – 0.49 SHU), while their most recent outing, a 3-1 defeat at home to Stoke, saw them comfortably beaten on the xG front yet again (xG: SWA 0.47 – 2.37 STO).
They have issues at both ends of the pitch. Swansea look incredibly toothless in attack, yet to generate over 1.0 xGF in a game, averaging a tepid 0.53 xGF per game.
At the other end they have conceded six non-penalty big chances (0.35 xG+) and allowed 2.27 xGA per game. Obviously, this is from a small sample size, and Russell Martin hasn’t had long to implement his ideas, but the underlying numbers a hugely concerning.
Just for more context, while Swansea were the team beaten in the play-off final last season, they ranked as a mid-table team based on xG, so Martin inherited a mid-table team that has since seen their top scorer from last season, Andre Ayew, depart.
Bristol City have shown signs of improvement, and look the more stable of these two sides with a better balance, so it is surprising to see the Robbins and the Swans priced evenly in this match.
Swansea are struggling, and rank bottom of the league in all of the major metrics, but given how I’m not 100% sold on Bristol City’s improvement just yet, I will take a more cautious approach with my City-based bet and tip up BRISTOL CITY TO WIN DRAW NO BET.
This bet means that, if the hosts win we land a winner, but if the game ends in a draw with get our money back. A Swansea win sees us lose our money, but that seems unlikely given their dysfunction in attack so far this term.
Bristol City v Swansea best bets and score prediction
- Bristol City to win Draw No Bet at 10/11 (MansionBet)
Score prediction: Bristol City 1-0 Swansea (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 15:00 BST (18/08/21)
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