Brighton v Chelsea tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Chelsea have fallen some 13 points behind leaders Manchester City, and Jake Osgathorpe doesn't expect them to make up ground on Tuesday as they visit Brighton.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Brighton or Draw double chance at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Brighton and Chelsea met not so long ago at Stamford Bridge, the 29th December to be exact, with the game ending all-square - and rightly so.
On that occasion, Brighton did an extraordinary job of limiting Chelsea's attacking output.
In their six home games prior to welcoming Brighton, Thomas Tuchel's side had generated an average of 3.17 xGF per game.
Graham Potter's side limited them to just 0.92 xGF.
In the same fixture last season, with the same men in the dugout, the game ended goalless, with Brighton again limiting Chelsea to less than 1.0 xGF, suggesting the Seagulls are a bad match-up for the Blues.
Potter's men come into this clash on the back of a frustrating 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, a game in which they created by far the better chances (xG: BHA 2.66 - 0.50 CRY), but the result means they are unbeaten in four league matches.
Chelsea were toothless in their 1-0 loss at Manchester City, a result that realistically ended their title hopes.
They mustered just 0.43 xGF in that game against the league's best defence, and now they travel to the Amex to face the league's fourth best defence based on xGA per game.
That is right, Brighton really do rank that highly on defensive metrics.
In fact, they allow around 0.20 xGA less when playing at home compared to playing on the road, with them conceding 1.09 xGA per game at the Amex.
Chelsea do pose an attacking threat wherever they play, but the drop off from home to away is considerable, especially when compared to their 'title rivals' Liverpool and Manchester City.
On average, Tuchel's side generate 0.56 fewer xGF per game away from home than at home (2.20 v 1.64).
Liverpool (2.82 v 2.62) generate only 0.20 less per game when on the road but are still racking up nearly 1.0 xGF per away game more than Chelsea, and it's the same for City (2.53 v 2.26) who generate 0.27 less per away game.
All of this tells us that Chelsea are in a bracket of their own, below Liverpool and Manchester City, but comfortably above the rest.
It is an interesting study to compare the three best teams in the country, but the main message of this is that their xGF per away game of 1.64 is simply not good enough for them to be trusted to go to a difficult place like Brighton and win - especially at the prices advertised.
For more context, Brighton's home xG process reads; 1.55 xGF and 1.09 xGA per game. Chelsea's away is 1.64 xGF and 1.11 xGA per game. There isn't much between the pair.
Factor in that recent results between Brighton (Potter) and Chelsea (Tuchel) have both been draws in which the Seagulls have limited the Blues to less than 1.0 xGF and the odds-against price about BRIGHTON OR DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE appeals.
Against the runaway trio this season, Brighton have deservedly drawn with both Liverpool and Chelsea away from home, with only City proving too strong.
The way in which they set up under Potter does lend itself to getting good results against the league's better sides, and Tuesday could be another one of those games.
Brighton v Chelsea score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Brighton or Draw double chance at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1500 GMT (17/01/22)
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