Joe Townsend previews Saturday's meeting between newly-promoted duo Brentford and Norwich, picking out his best bet.
1.5pts Brentford win and under 3.5 goals at 6/5 (BetVictor)
1pt Brentford clean sheet at 11/10 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Up until losing three successive games, Brentford had taken the Premier League by storm since winning promotion via the Sky Bet Championship play-offs.
Victories over Arsenal, Wolves and West Ham were seriously impressive, as was a thrilling 3-3 draw with Liverpool and painfully unlucky 1-0 defeat by Chelsea.
It was that loss that began this three-match losing streak, with subsequent defeats against Leicester and away at Burnley nothing to be ashamed of.
For that reason we ought to be confident in backing a home win on Saturday, safe in the knowledge that 10 games into the season Thomas Frank's side have averaged 1.49 xGF and 1.28 xGA per game while opponents Norwich are well on their way to being the worst team in Premier League history.
Two points, three goals scored and 25 conceded is some going, especially when the underlying Expected Goals (xG) numbers match such atrocious results.
A home win is priced a little short for my liking, but BRENTFORD WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS is not.
Eight of both the Bees' and Canaries' 10 league fixtures have seen under 3.5 goals this season.
The double prices up a fair bit shorter than the best odds of 6/5 available for this selection, and therefore should be backed.
Another angle worth taking is backing Daniel Farke's side to continue their impotence in front of goal - they are averaging 0.3 goals per game - and Brentford to rediscover their defensive solidity against the Premier League's worst attack.
It is a major surprise to see BRENTFORD CLEAN SHEET priced at 11/10 with Sky Bet and bet365, likely pushed out by the Bees' managing only three all season.
But Norwich have failed to score in 70% of their matches this season, with two of the three occasions they have found the net coming when facing Watford and Leeds - two of the top-flight's worst defences.
Go back further, and a side largely comprised of the same players, coached by the same manager, have now failed to score in 82% of their past 27 Premier League fixtures.
Grim numbers if you're a Canaries fan.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-0 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1100 BST (03/11/21)
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