Aston Villa have been impressive since Steven Gerrard's appointment, and Jake Osgathorpe is backing them on their trip to Brentford as one of his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 4/5 (bet365)
1pt Aston Villa to win at 6/4 (Betfair, SpreadEx)
Brentford have lost three of their last five, all to teams above them in the table, suggesting the Bees are rightly above the relegation zone but aren't good enough to challenge the better sides.
That is the level they are currently operating at, which suggests they won't go down this term and that has to be seen as a huge success.
On the whole they have been an impressive home team, averaging 1.67 xGF and 1.07 xGA per game, but they have only beaten one team above them in the table when hosting, and that was a depleted Arsenal side opening day.
The Bees have lost to Brighton, Leicester, Chelsea and Manchester City, and while Aston Villa aren't at the level of the latter two, they most certainly are as good as the former.
Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Brentford 2/1 | Draw 9/4 | Aston Villa 7/5
Couple that with the fact that Brentford's underlying process has taken a dip since the November international break to 1.02 xGF and 1.49 xGA per game, and the visitors start to appeal more in this clash.
Aston Villa have been excellent under Steven Gerrard, winning four of seven, but their three defeats have come against the runaway top three, games they were expected to lose.
After only a short period of time, Villa are looking like a 'best of the rest' type of team, averaging 1.30 xGF and 0.79 xGA per game in their four wins against teams not challenging for the title.
That defensive figure is particularly impressive given that they conceded 1.56 xGA per game under Dean Smith if we exclude the top three also.
They haven't been majorly prolific just yet in attack though, but should create enough against a Brentford team who have looked more leaky of late.
That all means that an ASTON VILLA WIN is one of the selections for this game.
Villa have performed well against 'the rest' under Gerrard, while Brentford have had issues against teams higher in the table than them.
Villa look too big at around 6/4 when we consider that Watford were a general 21/10 shot to win at the Brentford Community Stadium a few weeks ago. The gulf in class between Villa and Watford is greater than that odds difference highlights.
The second, and main, bet for this game is to back UNDER 2.5 GOALS.
Brentford's recent attacking issues coupled with Villa's solid defence means we should see a dearth of goals in this game, and at a best price of 4/5, Under 2.5 looks a solid bet.
Brentford v Aston Villa best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 4/5 (bet365)
- 1pt Aston Villa to win at 6/4 (Betfair, SpreadEx)
Score prediction: Brentford 0-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (31/12/21)
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