Brazil v Argentina tips: World Cup qualifying best bets and preview
Liam Kelly previews the massive clash that is Brazil v Argentina, forecasting a very competitive but ultimately low-scoring affair.
Football betting tips: World Cup qualifiers
3pts Under 2.5 Goals at 8/13 (General)
A swift rematch of July's Copa América final, as the two South American giants face each other in a World Cup qualifier.
Brazil have yet to drop a point in the group stage thus far, winning seven from seven after predictably edging out Chile by a goal to nil in midweek.
Bitter rivals Argentina, who won final between these teams, are second, somewhat keeping pace with Brazil following a 3-1 win over Venezuela last time out — six points off the top spot despite remaining unbeaten.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: Premier Sports 1
Brazil 23/20 | Draw 21/10 | Argentina 5/2
As stated, Brazil's 1-0 victory was entirely unsurprising. It is simply the way the Seleção succeed under Tite, limiting their opposition to very few scoring chances and relying on their extremely talented forward line to produce when presented with opportunities.
Some Premier League teams have refused to release their players to the Brazil squad, which perhaps weakens them slightly, but it won't change the philosophy that Tite has instilled.
That philosophy is clear in their actual goal numbers in this group, conceding just two goals in seven matches, and was on full display in this summer's Copa América.
Brazil allowed an average of 0.69 expected goals against (xGA) per game in their seven tournament matches, conceding only three goals en route to a runner-up finish.
Argentina won the competition with a similar defence-first outlook, even with Lionel Messi leading the side, conceding 0.80 xGA per game on average, also shipping just three goals.
Thursday's 3-1 winning scoreline against Venezuela masks what was a tight-knit affair in the early stages, too, with Argentina's opponents reduced to ten men in the 32nd minute.
The floodgates opened in the second half against a tiring team, but Argentina remain a pragmatic side.
All roads seemingly lead to this game being a disappointment for the neutral, making UNDER 2.5 GOALS an outstanding value bet — despite the short price of 8/13.
July's Copa América final (xG: ARG 0.76 - 0.75 BRA) gives us a fantastic insight as to how this game might play out. I'm surprised 8/13 is available given all we know about how these two nations approach the game.
Brazil v Argentina best bets and score prediction
- 3pts Under 2.5 Goals at 8/13 (General)
Score prediction: Brazil 0-0 Argentina (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1530 BST (03/09/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
