Jake Pearson previews the Sky Bet Championship clash between Bournemouth and Middlesbrough, with both sides pushing for promotion to the Premier League.
Football betting tips: Championship
1pt Philip Billing to have 3+ shots at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Bournemouth sit ten points behind league-leaders Fulham, and though they have a game in hand over Marco Silva’s men, consolidating automatic promotion will be the highest priority for Scott Parker’s side, particularly with Huddersfield and Nottingham Forest breathing down their necks.
Two games without a win leaves the Cherries in a slightly vulnerable position, and a tough fixture at home to one of the league’s better teams is hardly what Parker would have wanted to kick-off the bank holiday weekend.
Middlesbrough have stumble slightly in their own promotion bid of late though, successive defeats leaving them in eighth position, though they are only three points adrift of sixth and with a game in hand.
Indeed, Boro have been one of the best teams in the Sky Bet Championship since Chris Wilder took charge, and even across the season as a whole they boast the fourth best expected goal difference (xGD) – their 21.6 xGD some 7.1 clear of next-best Luton.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Bournemouth 1/1 | Draw 12/5 | Middlesbrough 14/5
This has all the ingredients for a thoroughly entertaining affair, but instead of trying to pick a winner in a match that looks efficiently priced, backing PHILIP BILLING TO TAKE 3+ SHOTS at a big price of 3/1 is the recommended selection in this fixture.
The second most creative team in the division as per expected goals, Bournemouth may be expected to create chances against Boro, but with the away side boasting the second-best defensive process in the league, they may be restricted to more speculative efforts.
Billing is the joint-second top scorer for the Cherries in the Championship this season, his eight goals bettered only by Dominic Solanke. His xG of 7.61 is the second highest in the team, while his average shots per game figure of 1.7 is bettered only by Solanke and Ryan Christie.
Three shots may be slightly on the speculative side – and the even money about him taking two is an equally appealing bet – but it is a tally he has hit on seven occasions this season, including in three of his last ten.
With Billing given license to roam in Parker’s usual 4-3-3 set-up, he often doubles as a second striker, which affords him plenty of opportunities for shots on goal.
Bournemouth v Middlesbrough best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Philip Billing to have 3+ shots at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Middlesbrough (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1020 BST (13/04/21)
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