Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich tips: German Super Cup best bets and preview
The German Super Cup sees Borussia Dortmund meet Bayern Munich on Tuesday night, and Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets following a very profitable weekend.
Football betting tips: German Super Cup
1.5pts Erling Haaland and Robert Lewandowski both to score at 12/5 (Betfair)
1pt e.w. Leon Goretzka to score first at 22/1 (Sky Bet 1/3 1-99)
1pt Erling Haaland to have 1+ assists at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Leon Goretzka to score 2+ goals at 100/1 (Sky Bet)
The Bundesliga season may only be one matchday old but Borussia Dortmund will already feel like they're in the driving seat. They hammered Eintracht Frankfurt 5-2 while Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayern Munich played out a draw, Bayer Leverkusen were held by Union Berlin and RB Leipzig fell to a shock defeat to Mainz.
Attention now turns to the Super Cup where Dortmund meet Bayern once again. The Bavarians have come out on top in the last five meetings between the two and the good news for the neutral is that these games are always entertaining - four of the last five have seen at least four goals scored with five or more coming in the last three.
That should continue here given the questionable defences on both sides and the firepower up front. Bayern looked uncomfortable with possession at the back in Friday's draw and that could be an issue in the early stages of the Julian Nagelsmann era. Dortmund are also lacking a strong defence given current absentees - and that was demonstrated in the two goals scored by Frankfurt last time out.
Kick-off time: 19:30 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Dortmund 19/10 | Draw 3/1 | Bayern Munich 23/20
There are a number of betting opportunities in this game given how high-scoring it should be. Bayern hit an expected goals (xG) figure of 3.13 in that game on Friday while Dortmund scored five from 2.91. Not only that, both teams saw the opposition go above 2.0 xG as well.
It's hardly a surprise to say that the focus is on both strikers here but using Betfair's Bet Builder gives odds of 12/5 on ERLING HAALAND AND ROBERT LEWANDOWSKI BOTH TO SCORE in 90 minutes. That seems a generous price given the individual records of both players and the fact it has happened in this fixture before.
The previous two meetings between Dortmund and Bayern have seen both Haaland and Lewandowski hit the net. The last game saw the duo score a brace each. Considering the pair scored a combined 89 goals in all competitions last season - and have both already struck in 21/22 - it's a surprise to see a price at nearly 5/2 for both to strike anytime.
Goretzka's value too good to miss
We're backing a high-scoring game here and the one price that sticks out now - and seemingly always does when Bayern are involved - is the 22/1 on LEON GORETZKA TO SCORE FIRST. Taking this each-way creates odds of around 7/1 and he scored when the two sides last met - the 4-2 win for Bayern at the beginning of March.
He had opportunities to score from midfield in the draw with Mönchengladbach and finished the game with an xG figure of 0.28. He comes into the season on the back of a goal from one start and two sub appearances at Euro 2020 alongside eight for Bayern in all competitions in 20/21.
I'm constantly surprised by how overpriced Goretzka is in virtually every game. The 7/1 mark is for midfielders who get the occasional goal, not those who averaged one every four games in a very strong side last season. He's scored eight or more in each of his last two seasons. It's difficult for him not to be tipped to score in Bayern previews when value is constantly on offer.
Just because it could become yet another goal-laden contest, we're also having a small stake on the 100/1 for GORETZKA TO SCORE 2+ GOALS. There is an element of this being a value play but you'd expect that selection to be sitting around the 50/1 mark if the prices were more balanced based on his output.
Back Haaland to have an assist
While an eye-catching element of Haaland's game is his ability to score goals - and plenty at that - he does also contribute with assists and doesn't necessarily get the credit he should for that.
His campaign began with a brace and three assists as Dortmund brushed aside Frankfurt but despite that, Sky Bet are still offering a huge 13/2 for HAALAND TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS on Tuesday night. That is a price that is too good to turn down.
The striker had 12 assists across all competitions last season while there was one when these two sides met in 2020 - that being a 3-2 victory to Bayern. If Dortmund are looking to hit Bayern with pace, it could lead to opportunities for Haaland to play in a teammate.
Perhaps the head coach change in the summer and the appointment of Marco Rose has seen greater emphasis placed on Haaland to play the creator alongside the goalscorer at times. If he can add a few more to his tally in the opening parts of the campaign, we won't see a price like 13/2 available for the rest of the season and it's something well worth backing now.
Bayern are - as expected - the favourites to win the Super Cup but the performance at the weekend may lead some to take the odds-against price on success for Dortmund. If recent history has taught us anything, it's that going high on the over goals line usually pays off instead.
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Erling Haaland and Robert Lewandowski both to score at 12/5 (Betfair)
- 1pt e.w. Leon Goretzka to score first at 22/1 (Sky Bet 1/3 1-99)
- 1pt Erling Haaland to have 1+ assists at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pts Leon Goretzka to score 2+ goals at 100/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1030 BST (16/08/21)
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