Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich tips: Der Klassiker Bundesliga best bets and preview
Dortmund host Bayern Munich in the big Bundesliga game of the weekend. Cameron Pope previews the game, selecting his best bet.
Football betting tips: Der Klassiker
1pt Bayern Munich to win and Under 2.5 Goals at 6/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Bayern Munich are used to having things their way. Champions every year since the 2011/12 season, they have ruled the roost since before weekend opponent Jude Bellingham was dropped off at the gates of his secondary school for the first time, but this season’s embryonic table sees that dominance facing a daring challenge.
There was surprise when Julian Nagelsmann’s men were held by Monchengladbach at the end of August, and again at Union Berlin a week later; cue all-out shock when the champions followed that up with just a point from their games against Stuttgart and Augsburg.
Now third, Bayern responded by thumping Leverkusen 4-0 without mercy last Friday night at the Allianz Arena, before putting five unanswered goals past Viktoria Plzen at home in the Champions League. The Bavarians look to have found their feet again – at least on their own patch.
That being said, their questionable record away from home of late cannot go ignored; one point from their last two domestic road trips exposes a potential weak link against Dortmund.
Furthermore, Nagelsmann must contend with something of a selection headache in midfield, an area regarded as something of an Achilles heel in terms of squad depth. Joshua Kimmich will not play a part, ruled out with Covid-19, as is Thomas Muller in his more advanced role, which leaves Marcel Sabitzer and Leon Goretzka likely to partner up for the first time this season and throwing some doubt on the output of Bayern’s engine room
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Dortmund 18/5 | Draw 10/3 | Bayern Munich 4/7
For the hosts, form is also an issue, though not necessarily at Signal Iduna Park. Dortmund have lost three of their last five, but all those defeats came on their travels at Leipzig, Manchester City and most recently Koln, against whom they led early on.
A confident 4-1 win at Sevilla in the Champions League will give them a boost heading into this game and the returning pair of first-choice goalkeeper Gregor Kobel and Mats Hummels adds further positive feeling around BVB.
Interestingly, without Hummels, Dortmund have leaked a goal every 23 minutes. With him in the line up, that drops to one concession every 512 minutes.
It is likely that the only way BVB get a result in this game is if it is a tight, low-scoring affair, with an open free-scoring one suiting the much more talented visitors.
Having two key defensive players back helps them in this regard, and means they perhaps have the potential to stunt Bayern somewhat and make this a grind.
I still feel as though BAYERN WILL WIN the game, but the value price about them picking up the three points AND UNDER 2.5 GOALS IN THE MATCH could be an outside bet that gives us a run for our money.
Bayern's recent away form is questionable, but the superiority is still there as they head to Signal Iduna Park, and they can do what they did a few years ago and edge to a narrow, controlled victory.
Dortmund v Bayern Munich score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Bayern Munich to win and Under 2.5 Goals at 6/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Dortmund 0-2 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct 1500 BST (06/10/22)
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