Blackburn welcome Cardiff at midday in the Sky Bet Championship, James Cantrill previews the game picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Championship
1pt Ben Brereton Diaz anytime goalscorer at 23/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Eleven points. The difference between Sheffield United in second and Blackburn in third - while also being the same margin between Rovers and Cardiff who sit in 19th.
It's been one of the most competitive seasons ever in a league often believed to be the most unpredictable.
Blackburn haven't looked like the third-best side in the division though, and their underlying data paints a similar picture as they are outperforming their xGD by over ten goals.
One point of interest is that we're 25 games in and Jon Dahl Tomasson's side are yet to draw - winning one more game than they have lost.
From those 13 victories, Blackburn have lost the 'xG battle' on six occasions, and generated less than an xG of 1.00 in five.
The data is on show for all to see, but is there a point where you have to hold your hands up and admit, maybe they are just an exceptionally clinical side?
Kick-off time: 12:00 GMT, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Football
Blackburn 13/10 | Draw 23/10 | Cardiff 21/10
A major factor in this has been BEN BRERETON DIAZ.
The Chilean frontman has scored 31 times since the start of the 21/22 campaign, racking up 170 shots and an xG of 26.59.
This season, Diaz is averaging 0.25 xG per game, significantly outperforming the figure with a much higher 0.88 goals per 90 rate.
One school of thought would be to say that this is unsustainable, another being that he is just a great finisher - I lean towards the latter.
That being said, he has not scored in over 400 minutes of Sky Bet Championship action. The form does differ depending on venue though.
Home comforts come into play here, with 78% of his goals being scored at Ewood Park - Rovers' home where he has only failed to register a shot on one occasion.
His price of 23/10 TO SCORE ANYTIME represents significant value, and this is the best bet of the contest.
He should see opportunities. This is a Cardiff side who have only won two of their last 12 games, possessing the fourth-worst away record in the division.
A total of 17 goals have been shipped across their 12 fixtures on the road, meaning DIAZ will get chances to strike.
Blackburn v Cardiff best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Ben Brereton Diaz anytime goalscorer at 23/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Blackburn 1-1 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (30/12/22)
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