Football betting tips: World Cup Qualifiers
1pt Joshua Kimmich to score or assist in Northern Ireland vs Germany at 21/10 (Paddy Power)
1.5pt Azerbaijan under 1.5 corners vs Ukraine at 15/8 (bet365)
0.5pt Azerbaijan under 0.5 corners vs Ukraine at 7/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Kosovo to beat Sweden at 8/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Northern Ireland vs Germany
- Kick-off: Monday, 19:45 BST
- TV Channel: BBC Two
- Live odds, form and stats
This is a pretty big game in Group A, with Northern Ireland and Germany locked on six points after three games, along with Slovakia. The Germans have a superior goal difference and lead the way for now, but they are not guaranteed automatic qualification.
They have, though, been by far the best team in the group according to expected goals, averaging 2.73 xGF and 0.53 xGA per game, and it will be a tall order for the Northern Irish to beat them here.
The bet I'm drawn to is one involving Germany captain JOSHUA KIMMICH, who's price of 21/10 to SCORE OR ASSIST looks on the large side.
Fresh from netting a brace last time out - including a penalty - Kimmich has moved into the leader house for xG per 90 for his country which is quite something for a right-back (0.55).
And, while he hasn't yet registered an assist, he's creating chances for his teammates, averaging 0.31 xA per 90 which is third most among German players in this qualifying campaign.
In total he's averaging 0.86 expected goals involvements (xGI) per 90, so we shouldn't be surprised should he continue to have a hand in goals.
Odds correct at 1030 BST (13/10/25)
Sweden vs Kosovo
- Kick-off: Monday, 19:45 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
This really is a must-win for Sweden. Everyone knows about the firepower they have at the top of the pitch with Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres and Anthony Elanga, but they are top heavy, and it's led to two defeats in three qualifiers, meaning they sit bottom of their group at the halfway stage.
They were well-beaten at home by Switzerland last time out, shipping 2.14 xG in front of their own fans, and now with even more pressure on them, I think we have to oppose them once again.
Now, KOSOVO aren't near the level of the Swiss, but that's why we are getting 8/1 about an AWAY WIN, a huge leap from the 2/1 available for the Swiss last Friday.
The underdogs won the first meeting 2-0 and were good value for that victory (xG: KOS 1.49 - 0.95 SWE), and I'm just not sure they should be such a big price to complete the double against a Sweden side who can't defend.
Odds correct at 1015 BST (13/10/25)
Ukraine vs Azerbaijan
- Kick-off: Monday, 19:45 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
We had success in backing poor teams to fail last weekend, with Gibraltar failing to register a corner away in Croatia, and we'll rinse and repeat here as AZERBAIJAN travel to Poland to face Ukraine.
The underdogs can be backed at 15/8 for UNDER 1.5 CORNERS and 7/1 for UNDER 0.5 CORNERS and we'll back both.
Ukraine are a possession heavy team when playing against the lesser likes, which helps this bet too, but the selections are more to do with Azerbaijan's short comings.
So far in three qualifying games, they have managed just three corners across three games, failing to register a single one against France last time out. The reverse fixture against Ukraine saw them rack up just one corner too as the Ukrainians had 75% of the ball.
The fact Ukraine will be looking to win big helps too, with Iceland having thrashed Azerbaijan 5-0 to have a goal difference advantage, so we should expect them to keep their foot to the pedal and not let the minnows get out.
Odds correct at 1030 BST (13/10/25)
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