Football betting tips: League One play-offs
15:00 Stevenage vs Stockport
1pt Stevenage to win and under 2.5 goals at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
20:00 Bolton vs Bradford
1pt Ruben Rodrigues to be carded at 4/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Ruben Rodrigues to be the first player carded at 18/1 (bet365)
Bolton vs Bradford
- Kick-off: Saturday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
Both these sides tumble into the play-offs with a bit of a splutter.
Bradford have only won one of their last five, Bolton one of their last six.
For Saturday’s hosts, getting back in the play-offs was probably the expectation considering their squad and stature. For their opponents though, a spot in the play-offs is a real coup and caps off a couple of successful seasons.
To be fair to the Bantams they had a tough run-in across their last five games. They won at Exeter (who needed to win to stay up) drew against Bolton and, Plymouth and lost to Stevenage.
Their form at Valley Parade gives them a real chance in the play-offs.
I wouldn’t back either team to win on Saturday though. At 5/2 generally, the draw is probably the play but I am going to take the rare opportunity to back League One player cards instead.
RUBEN RODRIGUES looks the standout price TO BE CARDED at 4/1.
With 41 career cards and a cards per 90 average of 0.20, it is exactly apt but in his last full season at the level he was carded 10 times and he’s picked up two cautions in six appearances for the Wanderers this term.
Martin Coy has the whistle and he isn’t renowned for flashing the cards. The referee has averaged 3.17 cards a game this term.
This, combined with play-off semi-final first legs' historic lack of cards, means it is worth touting Rodrigues to be the FIRST PLAYER BOOKED at 18/1 as it could be a one or two-card game.
Stevenage vs Stockport
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
STEVENAGE are the plucky underdogs in League One’s play-off campaign.
That’s what the odds would have you believe anyway with them priced as 5/1 outsiders.
Would Plymouth or Luton be that price if either had snuck into the top six on the final day? I am not so sure.
If you forget for a second that this is Stevenage, and just look at their campaign in raw numbers, it is easy to warm to their chances of promotion.
Only 103-point champions Lincoln (41) conceded fewer goals (46), only the top two and Bolton lost fewer games (13) and Stevenage ranked fourth for games won (21).
On their own patch, they took the fourth most points, won the fourth most games, lost the joint-second fewest (2) and while they barely scored, they conceded the fewest (13).
Manager Alex Revell is relatively inexperienced in the dugout but as a player has play-off winning experience to draw on. That has to count for something. He scored a pretty good goal at Wembley as well.
If they are going to cause a shock - as I suspect they could - they could do with a result here.
Their record against fellow play-off sides is decent enough (W3 D1 L1). They’re unbeaten on their own patch (W1 D2) and beat Stockport in both league fixtures by an aggregate scoreline of 5-2.
By comparison, the Hatters' record is poor. They’ve only won one of six games (D1 L4) against the play-off sides which was at home to Bolton in the first match of the campaign.
At 4/1, backing Stevenage TO WIN AND UNDER 2.5 GOALS is the bet.
It’s the same as dutching stakes across the 1-0 and 2-0 correct score just at bigger odds and it has landed in 11 of their 14 home league wins.
Odds correct at 14:45 BST (07/05/26)
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