Football betting tips: Europa League
20:00 - Braga vs N Forest
1pt Igor Jesus to score anytime at 23/10 (BetVictor)
Braga vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Thursday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Joe Townsend
The longer this goes on, the longer the idea that IGOR JESUS has an identical twin brother will continue to gather momentum.
By failing to score against Arsenal at the weekend the Nottingham Forest striker has one Premier League goal from 21 appearances. In cup competitions he has seven in seven, with four in five Europa League matches.
He is certainly underperforming in the top flight when it comes to taking his chances, with one goal from 3.43 expected goals (xG), but for a first-choice centre-forward that is hardly a high total - it averages out to 0.26 xG per 90.
In Europe that shoots up to 1.05 with his non-penalty xG per 90 still an impressive 0.77.
At 23/10 TO SCORE ANYTIME we should keep it simple and back him to continue his impressive cup form.
Arnaud Kalimuendo started Forest's last UEL match in place of Jesus - who came off the bench to score the winner - but has since joined Frankfurt on loan.
Sean Dyche doesn't appear to be a fan of Taiwo Awoniyi, his only other fit striker, with the Nigerian yet to start a game since the former Burnley and Everton boss arrived as manager, making it seem virtually certain Jesus will be in the XI for what is a crucial game.
Braga sit seventh in the Europa League standings, four places and two points above Forest. One more win may very well be enough for the hosts to clinch a top-eight finish and automatic qualification for the last 16.
Victory for Forest would therefore be huge, giving them a great chance of having their destiny in their own hands heading into next week's final-round fixture with Fenerbahce.
17:45 - Bologna vs Celtic
2.5pts Over 3.5 cards at 23/20 (Paddy Power)
1pt Anthony Ralston to be carded at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Jonathan Rowe to be carded at 11/2 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Ralston and Rowe to be carded at 24/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
Bologna vs Celtic
- Kick-off: Thursday, 17:45 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 5
- Live odds, form and stats
Jake Osgathorpe
Martin O'Neill takes his once-again Celtic side to Italy in a huge Europa League game. The Bhoys are 24th in the standings, meaning they are right on the edge of elimination with only the top 24 advancing. Bologna are 13th and just two points off the top eight who qualify automatically for the last 16.
The hosts are a heavy odds-on to win but O'Neill has quickly got Celtic rolling again in his second interim stint of the season. All told, O'Neill has overseen 11 games and won 10, with their only defeat coming at Midtjylland in this competition.
He did lead them to an away European victory at Feyenoord though, so they will have real belief they can get a result in Bologna in what is a massive seven days for the Bhoys, who play at Scottish Premiership leaders Hearts on Sunday and round off their UEL league phase next Thursday.
Given the importance of the game, it is surprising to see OVER 3.5 CARDS available at 23/20, and that rates a cracking bet. We have a referee in Vasilis Fotias who has averaged 4.92 cards per game this season, and two obliging teams.
In nine league and UEL games under O'Neill, Celtic have collected 18 cards (2.0 per game) while Bologna have collected an average of 1.97 cards per game over the course of their entire campaign.
We'll also take a punt on ANTHONY RALSTON TO BE CARDED at 4/1. Ralston should come in to play right-back here with the on-loan Julian Araujo ineligible at this stage. He's been carded twice in all competitions this season but we have to take a swing given who he'll be up against.
Bologna are set to start Jonathan Rowe on the left-wing who has drawn 3.13 fouls per 90 this season, and his replacement around the 65-70 minute mark will be Nicolo Cambiaghi who has drawn 4.01 fouls per 90. So, across 90 minutes Ralston is set to be in for a very tough evening and 4/1 doesn't reflect that.
Flipping it, we'll also back ROWE TO BE CARDED at 11/2 given his record. He's been booked three times in limited minutes for Bologna (0.35 per 90) making the price on offer huge, and he's committing 1.50 fouls per 90.
Ralston is drawing 1.72 fouls per 90 this season so this match-up could be really profitable, so much so we have to take the RALSTON AND ROWE CARD DOUBLE at 24/1.
It goes without saying that should Rowe not start, switch him with Cambiaghi from the off, who is also a foul (1.93 p90) and card (0.32 p90) machine - we do have super sub in our favour by taking these bets on Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair.
Odds correct at 11:15 GMT (21/01/26)
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