Football betting tips: Europa League and Conference League
17:45
1.5pts Jean-Philippe Mateta to score anytime in Dynamo Kyiv vs Palace at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt Celtic most cards vs Braga at 12/5 (bet365)
20:00
1pt Anel Ahmedhodzic to be carded in Feyenoord vs Aston Villa at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Tochi Chukwuani to be carded in Sturm Graz vs Rangers at 11/4 (Sky Bet, Betfair,, Paddy Power)
1pt Denil Castillo to be carded in Forest vs Midtjylland at 11/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Ousmane Diao to score anytime in Forest vs Midtjylland at 14/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
Dynamo Kyiv vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Thursday, 17:45 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 3
- Live odds, form and stats
Jake Osgathorpe
Crystal Palace get their Europa Conference League campaign under way with a trip to Poland to face Ukrainian side Dynamo Kyiv. The Eagles, fresh from beating Liverpool, are 4/6 favourites.
Dynamo have been explosive in attack so far this season in the Ukrainian Premier League, netting 21 times in seven games, but have been defensively vulnerable, and struggled on the continent. They entered Champions League qualifying but were eliminated by Pafos, before dropping into Europa League qualifying and being knocked out by Maccabi Tel-Aviv.
They now face the Conference League's pre-tournament favourites who are on an 18-game unbeaten run in all competitions.
We should expect a comfortable Palace win, especially with Dynamo conceding a host of goals of late - eight goals in their last four league games - so at the prices JEAN-PHILIPPE MATETA TO SCORE ANYTIME gets the vote.
We'll take the 11/10 on offer with Sky Bet, who give us super sub too. The French striker has netted in four of 10 starts this season and is averaging an impressive 0.61 xG per 90.
It's an obvious play - back the man who leads the line for the favourites - but Mateta has been banging on the door every single game.
In the games he hasn't scored he's been on the end of four shots and 0.92 xG (vs Liverpool) four shots and 0.63 (vs Millwall) two shots and 0.59 xG (vs Sunderland) two shots and 0.51 xG (at Fredrikstad) two shots and 0.16 xG (vs Forest) and three shots and 0.29 xG (at Chelsea).
He's a constant threat and will get chances here against a vulnerable Dynamo side in a game Palace should win.
Odds correct at 10.30 BST (01/10/25)
Celtic vs Braga
- Kick-off: Thursday, 17:45 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 2
- Live odds, form and stats
Jake Osgathorpe
Celtic were held in their first Europa League game in Serbia, and now welcome a Braga side who beat Feyenoord to get their campaign off to a great start.
The Portuguese side have been very poor domestically though, winless in five despite not playing any of the big three, so this could be a good opportunity for Brendan Rodgers' men.
But, I can't trust the Bhoys at even money, and so, with a very good referee appointment, we have to get involved in the cards markets.
Backing CELTIC MOST CARDS appeals at 12/5 given the fact they have been foul and card heavy this season, whereas their Portuguese opponents haven't.
This bet has won in nine of Braga's 10 games this season, while the Portuguese side have lost the foul count in seven of those.
Celtic meanwhile have committed more fouls than their opponents in seven of nine matches and collected more cards in five of nine.
With the desperation for a home win, it's worth a swing at a big price.
Odds correct at 1435 BST (01/10/25)
Nottingham Forest vs Midtjylland
- Kick-off: Thursday, 20:00 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Jake Osgathorpe
Things haven't started too well for Ange Postecoglou at Nottingham Forest. He's winless in five games since taking over, and the pressure is already beginning to ramp up.
Danish side Midtjylland got their UEL campaign off to a winning start, and could well cause yet more problems for Big Ange on Thursday.
Both of their goals against Sturm Graz came from set-pieces - an own goal and one for OUSMANE DIAO - and the young Senegalese defender looks overpriced at 14/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME.
It is surprising just how quickly things have flipped from Forest being a competent set-piece team to being hopeless, just like Ange's Spurs.
Across the whole of last season Forest conceded just nine goals from dead-ball situations. In Ange's five games in charge they have been breached five times from set-pieces.
It's a clear vulnerability that the Aussie manager has taken with him to the City Ground, with his Spurs side shipping the fifth most set-piece goals and expected goals in the league last season, so taking a swing at Midtjylland's biggest set-piece threat makes sense.
Diao scored seven times in 42 appearances last season, netting three times in 15 European contests too.
We'll also chance midfielder DENIL CASTILLO TO BE CARDED, with the Ecuadorian seemingly overpriced in the market.
He's 11/2 here, yet his midfield partners are much shorter with Philip Billing 13/5 and Pedro Bravo 10/3.
Castillo has two yellows in eight starts this term, and committed two fouls in their UEL opener. Last season he was carded four times in limited minutes (0.42 per 90) in the Superligaen and once in Europe.
He will be faced with some mobile and direct Forest midfielders, notably Morgan Gibbs-White, and we have a decent referee for this one in Willy Delajod (4.2 cards per game career average).
Odds correct at 1435 BST (01/10/25)
Feyenoord vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Thursday, 20:00 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 3
- Live odds, form and stats
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
The referee here is Rade Obrenovic and he doesn't mind flashing the cards on the continent.
This season in the Champions League, UCL qualification and Europa League he has dished out 20 cards in three games. Across his career, he has averaged over four cards a game in this competition and given six or more in three of the six games he has taken charge off.
To the player card market then where ANEL AHMEDHODZIC's price TO BE CARDED stands out.
In three seasons at Sheffield United the central defender notched up 34 yellow and two red cards in the league. Already this campaign in six Eredivisie appearances he has been booked and sent off.
On Thursday, he will either be opposing Ollie Watkins or Donyell Malen. The former has drawn an average of 3.3 fouls per game in the Premier League and Europa League. Both opposing centre-backs were booked in quick succession after his introduction against Bologna.
Odds correct at 1435 BST (01/10/25)
Sturm Graz vs Rangers
- Kick-off: Thursday, 20:00 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 2
- Live odds, form and stats
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
Sturm Graz midfielder TOCHI CHUKWUANI has picked up five cards in seven league appearances this season. Across 121 domestic appearances (per FBref), he has a 0.38 cards per 90 average in domestic competitions which make the 5/2 available for him TO BE CARDED a touch too big on Thursday.
He wasn’t carded in the defeat against Midtjylland on matchday one but did commit three fouls and was booked twice in seven Champions League appearances last term.
Chukwuani is a central midfielder and at least one opposition central midfielder has been carded against Rangers in four of their six league games.
Odds correct at 1435 BST (01/10/25)
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