Jake Pearson previews the first leg of the Champions League quarter-final between Benfica and Liverpool, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Under 50 booking points at 4/5 (Sky Bet)
If the bookmakers are to be believed, and in truth, they very often should be, then Liverpool boast more than a 90% chance of progressing past Benfica over two legs.
It is a fair assumption, the Reds are one of the best teams in Europe, are still involved in all four competitions they started the season in, and should have little trouble easing past a Benfica side who sit third in the Portuguese Primeira Liga.
The hosts caused perhaps the upset of the round of 16 when knocking out Ajax over two legs – Darwin Nunez’ late goal in Holland enough to swing the tie in favour of the Portuguese outfit, winning 3-2 on aggregate – but they have a much tougher task on their hands here, and it is difficult to find any betting interest in the 1X2 markets.
Looking through the various betting markets though, the assumption that this game is likely to see plenty of bookings seems a little misguided.
Sky Bet have the line at around the 50 booking points mark, with 50+ priced at 10/11, and that looks very high given these two sides’ seasonal statistics.
Only Manchester City have picked up fewer yellow cards than Liverpool in the Premier League this season, while Benfica actually sit bottom of the Portuguese top-flight in terms of cautions awarded.
In the Champions League as well, neither side have seen a plethora of cards, with Liverpool’s tally in particular comparatively low.
The second leg of their last 16 tie against Inter Milan did get a little tasty, but the first leg saw no cards across the entire match, while during the group stage the Reds picked up no cards on two occasions, and a grand total of eight across their six fixtures.
Benfica have had a few names taken in the competition this term, but given the pattern that this game is likely to take it is hard to envisage the match being all that competitive.
Liverpool are expected to dominate – they have averaged the third-most possession in the Champions League this term while Benfica have averaged more than only FC Sherriff, Malmo and Club Brugge.
Only six Premier League matches involving Jurgen Klopp’s men have seen 50 or more booking points – it is difficult to get near enough to this Liverpool team to foul them – and a price for this first leg to also see UNDER 50 BOOKING POINTS make a huge amount of appeal.
Benfica v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 50 booking points at 4/5 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Benfica 0-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1250 GMT (04/04/21)
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