Belgium take on France in the second semi-final of the UEFA Nations League in Turin, and Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Nations League
1pt Both Teams To Score ‘NO’ at 37/40 (BetVictor)
Roberto Martinez has made clear his intentions of taking the Nations League seriously, saying in the build-up to this match how there are now three major international trophies up for grabs.
For the Spanish manager, some would deem his stint at the helm of Belgium as a failure should he fail to secure any of those trophies, though even victory in the Nations League may not be enough to earn him commendations given the talented squad he has at his disposal.
The ‘golden generation’ of Belgium football looks to be nearing its close, and this could realistically be their last chance to claim a winners medal.
Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard will both be 31 by the time the World Cup in Qatar rolls around, Romelu Lukaku will be 29, and Toby Alderweireld, Thomas Vermaelen and Jan Vertonghen, the trio that started Belgium’s Euro 2020 defeat to Italy, will have a combined age of 103.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Thursday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Belgium 19/10 | Draw 11/5 | France 6/4
They still have an incredibly strong squad of players, but every tournament they play in begins to feel a little now or never for Martinez’s men.
There is no such stick to beat Didier Deschamps with after he guided France to World Cup glory in 2018, but a poor showing at Euro 2020, a tournament they were favourites to win, has turned up the heat on the former Juventus player.
A penalty shoot-out defeat to Switzerland in the last 16 of the competition was a disappointment to say the least, particularly as France were 3-1 up in the match.
Les Bleus’ form hasn’t been great since that loss either, failing to win against both Bosnia & Herzegovina and Ukraine, before beating Finland 2-0.
The poor recent results may have urged Deschamps to rethink his side’s approach, France’s attempt to play more expansively at the Euros catching them cold, conceding six goals in their four matches.
Instead, he could revert to the pragmatism that saw the French claim the World Cup three years prior, particularly as they had significant success with that system against Belgium, beating Martinez’ side in the semi-finals of the competition in Russia.
France kept four clean sheets on their way to lifting the trophy in Russia, and it will be interesting to see exactly how Deschamps approaches this match, having flitted between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1 in recent months.
N’Golo Kante is a big miss from the squad, and Les Bleus will certainly miss his energy, but his absence may force France into a more defensive approach, unable to get away with poor positional play thanks to the constant cover of the Chelsea midfielder. More responsibility will be required with Kante out, and possibly a more rigid set up.
Martinez seldom veers from his favoured 3-5-2 formation, which makes the tactical battle all the more interesting; will Deschamps match-up the Belgians, or will he try and find an alternative solution?
There is still debate surrounding both of these managers as to their actual coaching and tactical ability, but there is no doubt that both certainly put plenty of thought into each game, and that makes this fixture an intriguing tactical battle.
The main issue with tactical battles however, particularly from a neutral perspective, is they tend to be low-scoring, and a price of 4/6 about there being less than three goals in the match backs up that thinking.
It makes sense given that during the Euros, Belgium’s attacking output ranked as low as 18th based on Expected Goals For, creating just 1.26 xGF per game, while defensively they were sound, allowing the fifth least chances in the competition.
France showed up better in attack, but defensively they were relatively solid as well, and considering also that the last meeting between the two returned just one goal, it would be a surprise were this a goal-laden affair.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ is priced up as the 37/40 outsider with BetVictor, but with the vast majority of firms it is the favourite of the two possible outcomes, with one bookmaker cutting it from 11/10 into as short as 10/13.
The money has clearly come for this selection, with a lot of firms now odds-on from odds-against, and given BetVictor are sticking their neck out and remaining top price, it is a bet worth getting on side.
Belgium v France best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Both Teams To Score ‘NO’ at 37/40 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Belgium 0-1 France (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1100 BST (06/10/21)
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