A huge game in the Bundesliga sees Bayern Munich host Borussia Dortmund on Saturday. Tom Carnduff is backing two goalscorers at big prices.
Football betting tips: Der Klassiker
1pt e.w. Raphael Guerreiro to score first at 33/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
1pt e.w. Jude Bellingham to score first at 22/1 (Sky Bet, bet365 1/3 1-99)
Bayern Munich meeting Borussia Dortmund is always a big game, but this is one carrying huge significance given the situation in the Bundesliga title race.
The Bavarians are in the unusual situation of trailing at this stage of the season. Nine games remain, they are behind by a point - defeat could be costly in ending their run of dominance in Germany's top-flight.
Such is the concern that Thomas Tuchel replaced Julian Nagelsmann as Bayern boss during the international break. A coach with a focus on defence, but one that may have to embrace the chaos of this fixture in the short-term.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Football
Bayern 4/9 | Draw 15/4 | Dortmund 19/4
In the weeks to come, Bayern will be better defensively. They've conceded the fewest amount of any Bundesliga side but it remains an area of concern, and hopes of a clean sheet will be tough against an attack as strong as Dortmund's.
Karim Adeyemi and Youssoufa Moukoko are big misses, but Sebastien Haller's return has been an incredibly welcome one. This is a side who hit Köln for six in their last game before the international break.
It shouldn't be a nervy affair as we'd perhaps expect when two top sides meet each other. Instead, the chaos probably suits the visitors, who should continue to see opportunities to score despite a change in the opposition dugout.
With that in mind, a couple of goalscorer bets stand out. The first of which is an each-way play on the 33/1 for RAPHAEL GUERREIRO TO SCORE FIRST.
He possesses a serious attacking threat anyway, but a switch to centre midfield from left-back in games before the recent break delivered goals in both.
How about Raphaël Guerreiro's opener for Dortmund this evening! 🚀#UCL pic.twitter.com/XAmk5tPGfO
— Football on BT Sport (@btsportfootball) October 5, 2022
Given results, and the fact they scored eight across those two, there is every chance Guerreiro retains his place there with Jude Bellingham and Emre Can lining up alongside him.
Can holds the defensive responsibilities, meaning Guerreiro can focus on contributing more in attack. Not only did he score against Köln and Schalke, he also provided three assists.
Even if he returns to the left-back position, his shots tallies throughout the season give us confidence that he will still see chances.
He had six shots in the last two games, with an average of 1.06 per game across his other 17 Bundesliga outings. All of those were on that left side of defence.
Retaining that spot in midfield will make these already generous odds look even better. It's 33s he grabs the first of the contest, making the each-way part of the bet pay out at 11/1.
Sticking with that Dortmund midfield, and even if his goalscoring form hasn't been the best, 22s available on BELLINGHAM TO SCORE FIRST with a couple of bookmakers provides interest.
Bellingham is one of those players who usually represents good value in goalscorer betting, but even more so in games where goals are favoured.
Even with the managerial switch, which needs to be given serious consideration of course, four or more scored remains an odds-on price. Effectively suggesting that Tuchel won't have enough time to fully implement any defensive changes.
Bellingham's season has delivered ten goals and six assists in 34 games across all competitions. It's easy to forget that he's only 19 - his showings have been utterly remarkable at the top level.
He is enduring something of a blip when it comes to direct goal involvement, but he's not worth giving up on as he's shown time and time again the quality that he brings.
Take this one each-way to get odds of above 7/1 on the goal anytime. Bellingham's been averaging 1.9 shots per Bundesliga game, with an average xG of 0.25 per league and Champions League game this season.
Ultimately, there's a reason why Bayern are the odds-on favourites here given their history in this fixture. Dortmund have failed to win at the Allianz since a 3-2 triumph in 2017.
But the visitors are full of confidence and know what victory will do to their long wait for Germany's top prize. The pressure is also on the hosts to come out with three points.
That makes it a tricky one to call. Goals are fancied but the prices are too short, making prices on BELLINGHAM and GUERREIRO the most appealing plays in Saturday's late kick-off.
Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund best bets and score prediction
- 1pt e.w. Raphael Guerreiro to score first at 33/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
- 1pt e.w. Jude Bellingham to score first at 22/1 (Sky Bet, bet365 1/3 1-99)
Score prediction: Bayern Munich 2-2 Borussia Dortmund (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1155 BST (29/03/23)
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