Jose Mourinho's Roma head to Leverkusen with a lead from their Europa League semi-final first leg. Liam Kelly has two value bets for the second leg.
Football betting tips: Europa League
1.5pts Bayer Leverkusen 15+ total shots at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Half with most goals - second half at 6/5 (PaddyPower, Betfair Sportsbook)
- Aggregate score: Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 Roma
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
It's fair to assume that Roma won't be overextending themselves from an attacking perspective on Thursday night, at least with the aggregate score as it is.
Jose Mourinho isn't exactly known to be enterprising at the best of times, and the latter parts of the first leg also suggests he might be happy for his side to soak up some pressure in Leverkusen and hit out on the counter.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
TV channel: BT Sport 3
In Rome last week, the hosts scored the one and only goal just after the hour mark. What followed was Bayer Leverkusen's best spell since a sharp start to the game.
Xabi Alonso's side recorded six of their ten total shots in the remaining 30+ minutes, displaying an ability to pressure Roma.
With that in mind, Sky Bet's offer of 11/10 for BAYER LEVERKUSEN to attempt 15+ TOTAL SHOTS appears generous, especially given the situation the German team find themselves in.
Even if Bayer Leverkusen do level things up, it's easy to envisage Roma holding on for extra time in the circumstances. And a Roma goal only enhances the probability of the bet landing, too.
Additionally, the SECOND HALF to be the HALF WITH MOST GOALS can be added to the staking plan. Available at 6/5 with PaddyPower and Betfair Sportsbook, it's a bet I like in certain second leg match-ups.
Both these teams are defensively solid domestically and the narrow aggregate score means Bayer Leverkusen may not be in a rush to open the game up.
Roma's total of 27.3 expected goals against (xGA) in 35 Serie A games this season is the best in the league, so they're more than capable of frustrating opposition.
At some point, however, this tie simply has to open up. Hopefully that will be in an entertaining second half.
Bayer Leverkusen v Roma best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Bayer Leverkusen 15+ total shots at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
- 1.5pts Half with Most Goals - Second Half at 6/5 (PaddyPower, Betfair Sportsbook)
Score prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 Roma (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1530 BST (16/05/23)
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