Azerbaijan v Rep of Ireland tips: World Cup qualifying best bets and preview
Stephen Kenny's Republic of Ireland travel to Azerbaijan with both sides looking for their first win of the World Cup qualifying campaign. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: World Cup qualifying
1pt Republic of Ireland to win at 13/10 (Unibet)
The two bottom teams in Group A face off as Azerbaijan host the Republic of Ireland, the home side on one point and the visitors on two.
When the draw was made Ireland were probably hopeful, if not confident, of putting in a good display and perhaps pushing for the runners-up spot.
That has certainly not proved to be the case however, Portugal and Serbia a long way clear and Luxembourg a comfortable four points ahead of Stephen Kenny’s men.
Ireland have certainly demonstrated plenty of fighting spirit over the last few months, leading against Portugal until the 89th minute immediately springs to mind, but Kenny has still won just one match since he was appointed over a year ago.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Azerbaijan 12/5 | Draw 19/10 | Rep of Ireland 5/4
The one saving grace for Ireland is that they are not bottom of the group, that unwanted honour goes to Azerbaijan, whose only point of the qualification campaign so far came against Ireland.
That match finished 1-1 Dublin, but in truth it could have been worse for Ireland, needing an 87th minute Shane Duffy goal to rescue a point.
The result heaped even more pressure on Kenny’s shoulders, but his side responded well with a 1-1 draw against Serbia last time out.
Neither of these teams are particularly adept at finding the back of the net, and this is not expected to be a goal-fest; odds of shorter than 1/2 for Under 2.5 Goals, and 4/6 for both teams not to score reveals all you need to know.
The 7/10 with BetVictor about BTTS 'No' is certainly tempting, but instead it could be worth sticking with Kenny’s men to finally turn their fortunes around.
Azerbaijan may have home advantage in this fixture, but truth be told, they are not a very good team. They rank in the bottom ten in just about every metric you can think of.
In terms of shots-per-game they have taken the ninth-fewest in European World Cup qualifying; shots-on-target they are fifth-bottom; only Liechtenstein have attempted fewer dribbles; only five teams have faced fewer shots; and no team has made more tackles, which shows how under the cosh they often are.
Effectively, Azerbaijan are one of the poorest teams Ireland are likely to face, backed up by their FIFA ranking of 117, some 67 places below Kenny’s men.
FIFA rankings are of course far from reliable, but there is a clear gulf in quality between the two sides, one that is not reflected heavily enough in the betting.
There looks to have been an overreaction to Ireland’s poor run of results; 1/2 to win the reverse fixture on Irish soil, but 13/10 to win away. Home advantage is obviously crucial but it is not worth 23%.
Kenny’s men have been playing well of late, and a price of 13/10 for REPUBLIC OF IRELAND TO WIN looks on the generous side.
Azerbaijan v Rep of Ireland best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Republic of Ireland to win at 13/10 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Azerbaijan 0-1 Rep of Ireland (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1420 BST (07/10/21)
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