Fresh from winning La Liga and reaching the Champions League final in the space of four days Real head to Atletico for a Madrid derby. Joe Townsend picks out a best bet.
Football betting tips: Madrid derby
1pt Real Madrid to win Draw no Bet at 7/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Anyone taking a cursory glance at the 1X2 market for this match could be forgiven for wondering if the prices were the wrong way around.
Real Madrid head into this fixture as Spain's standout team. Already champions, Carlo Ancelotti's side are 15 points clear atop La Liga with just four fixtures to play. Atletico are a full 20 points behind their city rivals in fourth.
A fifth straight league win clinched the title for Ancelotti's men last weekend, and they have won nine of their last 10.
Since celebrating in the capital, cigar and all, Real performed a miracle comeback to knock Manchester City out of the Champions League on Wednesday.
And it was that victory that led the club's Italian coach to announce that he will play a much-changed XI for this Madrid derby.
It had already been rumoured, so there was little extra reaction from the market - but just enough to squeeze out some further value.
Generally priced at 13/5 for victory - Atleti are odds-on with some bookmakers - this is the biggest Real Madrid have been to win a league game all season. For comparison in the opening Clasico of the campaign back in October, they were 29/20 to win at the Nou Camp.
Given Diego Simeone's men require a win to keep their chances of a top-four finish on track I'm not willing to go the whole way and back an away, but this is a Madrid derby - motivation will not be in question for the XI that do start in white.
At a standout price of 7/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair REAL MADRID DRAW NO BET should be backed, with the added insurance of having our stake returned should the match finish level.
Real are the best away team in La Liga and have won more points on the road than at the Bernabeu this season. Backing (by far) the better team to win at the Wanda Metropolitano at a big price is a sensible play despite the team selection uncertainty.
Madrid derby score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Real Madrid to win Draw no Bet at 7/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-2 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct 1555 GMT (06/05/22)
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