Atletico Madrid v Liverpool tips: Champions League best bets and preview
Liverpool boast a 100% record in the UCL as they head to Madrid, and Jake Osgathorpe has two bets as Jurgen Klopp and Diego Simeone do battle again.
Football betting tips: Champions League
3pts Liverpool to have most corners at 8/11 (Sky Bet)
2pts Liverpool 6+ corners at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1.5pt Liverpool to win at 13/10 (bet365)
Atletico Madrid host Liverpool in what is a rematch of the 2019 round of 16 tie that saw Simeone's side beat Klopp's reigning champions.
The Madrid side were lucky on that occasion, and while the managers and the core group of players at each club have remained the same, both teams head into this game in contrasting form.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
Atletico Madrid 11/5 | Draw 23/10 | Liverpool 5/4
Atleti had the weekend off as a result of players returning late from South American World Cup qualifiers, and while their results prior to the break were impressive on paper - 2-1 win against AC Milan before a 2-0 success at home to Barcelona - the performances weren't.
That has been the case for some time, as despite bolstering their attacking ranks in the summer, Simeone's men have struggled for fluidity at the top of the pitch, averaging just 1.37 xGF per game in La Liga this season.
In their two UCL games to date, they mustered just 0.36 xGF at home to Porto in a goalless draw, and only 1.32 at AC Milan - who played with 10-men for over an hour.
Defence is still their strong suit, and we can expect a backs against the wall job here against a Liverpool side in fine attacking form.
The Reds are rampant, with all of Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino in fine form - plus Diogo Jota.
They are creating at an insane rate currently, averaging 2.85 xGF per game in the Premier League, while in their two Champions League matches have racked up 2.71 and 3.42 xGF.
While Liverpool are facing one of Europe's best defensive sides, it seems unlikely that Atletico will be able to keep them quiet for the full 90 minutes, with the Reds expected to get a few chances at the very least.
I think they will prove too strong, and expected Klopp's men to be priced closer to 11/10, so the 13/10 available for a LIVERPOOL WIN appeals.
It will be one-way traffic, with Atleti looking to hold on and strike on the counter attack, but I just can't see this Liverpool team failing to score, and given Atleti's attacking issues, a narrow away win looks likely.
With the game pattern likely to be a lot of Liverpool attacking and Atletico defending, a look at Liverpool corners could offer value.
We can get 8/11 on LIVERPOOL TO TAKE MOST CORNERS and that looks a serious bet.
This bet is 2/5 elsewhere, and given Liverpool's corner numbers this season, that 2/5 appears the correct price.
The Reds have taken the most corners in nine of their 10 games across league and UCL games, averaging 9.4 corners per game. Atletico have won the corner count in games where they have fallen behind early, and while that is a possibility here, I suspect this game to remain close for long stretches, which should see the aggressors (Liverpool) rack up a few flag-kicks.
With the figures in mind, backing LIVERPOOL 6+ CORNERS looks a solid proposition as well.
At a best price of 11/10, this bet would have landed in eight of Liverpool's 10 games across the Premier League and Champions League, and given how I expect this game to flow, they should see plenty here.
The two-legs that these two shared in 2019 saw Liverpool win the corner count 7-2 away from home and 13-2 in normal time at Anfield, which bodes well.
Atletico Madrid v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 3pts Liverpool to have most corners at 8/11 (Sky Bet)
- 2pts Liverpool 6+ corners at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
- 1.5pt Liverpool to win at 13/10 (bet365)
Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 0-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1230 BST (18/10/21)
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