Atalanta v Manchester United tips: Champions League best bets and preview
Manchester United travel to Italy to face Atalanta in the Champions League on Tuesday and Tom Carnduff picks out a best bet.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts 28+ total match shots at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
Manchester United responded to an embarrassing 5-0 hammering by Liverpool with a 3-0 win away at Tottenham. It's a result that relaxed some of the pressure on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, although Spurs are hardly in a good place at the moment.
United pulled off yet another comeback victory by overturning a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2 against Atalanta in their meeting a couple of weeks ago. While it may seem a good result on paper, it's a characteristic of this team and that's not necessarily a good thing.
They played poorly. A repeat of that should mean a home win here and the fact that Atalanta are only 17/10 shows how tricky the contest could be for the Premier League side.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
Atalanta 17/10 | Draw 11/4 | Manchester United 11/8
This game should bring entertainment. A five-goal thriller at Old Trafford saw plenty of efforts on goal while the expected goals (xG) nearly matching the actual score shows the quality of chances available to both sides.
There was a very high shot count - 35 in total - and there is value in backing a repeat of a decent total. Atalanta average 15 shots per game in Serie A - 15.2 at home - while Manchester United are at 16 in the Premier League.
For United, they concede 12.7 shots per league game - a high figure compared to the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City - and that jumps up to 13.4 in away games. We could expect Atalanta to win the shot count on Tuesday night.
At a price of 5/4 with Sky Bet, we're taking 28+ TOTAL MATCH SHOTS. The league averages play to this while that recent meeting went well above it.
Atalanta played their part but Young Boys failed to post shots while their trip to Atalanta saw a total of 27 shots. For Manchester United, they conceded 19 shots to Young Boys in their previous European away game and their meeting with Villarreal had 29 across the match.
The inconsistent form of both sides means that going for an outright result is difficult here, although Infogol makes it a 52% chance that there is over 3.5 goals - making the 13/10 general price an interesting option.
Instead, with odds-against prices available alongside a recent meeting to look at, backing a high number of TOTAL SHOTS is the best play.
Atalanta v Manchester United best bets and score prediction
- 2pts 28+ total match shots at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Atalanta 2-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 0940 BST (01/11/21)
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