Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Each team 4+ corners at 20/23 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 15/1
- Each team 4+ corners
- Dan Burn 1+ shots on target
- 11+ match shots on target
To gatecrash is to 'enter (a party or other gathering) without an invitation or ticket' according to the dictionary.
"You have gatecrashed a private meeting" is the example it provides. Other examples include: 'Aston Villa' and 'Newcastle United'.
The Premier League 'big six' were set in their ways - the established elite who didn't like change. Sure, you want one team to maybe disrupt for one season and one season only just to keep people happy but in the long term, it must be the same six in Europe.
But then Newcastle and Villa came along. Not just one-season wonders but continued thorns in the sides of the traditional bunch.
EZRI KONSA GRABS VILLA'S THIRD 😱
— Amazon Prime Video Sport (@primevideosport) April 15, 2025
The hosts are now just one goal from levelling the tie#UCLonPrime pic.twitter.com/SmKyeV8z72
Newcastle look set to return to the Champions League following a brief absence while Villa head into Saturday's contest having beaten PSG on the night in the quarter-final of Europe's top club competition just days earlier.
For all of Villa's brilliance under Unai Emery, they've largely been unable to get the better of Newcastle. The previous three meetings have all gone in the Toon's favour with them scoring at least three times in each victory.
It's a fascinating encounter and one they've got right when it comes the televised selections.
What are the best bets?
Contests between Newcastle and Villa usually deliver action at both ends. Two of the previous three mentioned above have had each team taking at least five shots on target.
It's also a fixture which usually brings CORNERS and I'm happy to side with the 20/23 price on BOTH TEAMS 4+ in Saturday's later kick-off.
The previous meeting between the sides - a 3-0 win for Newcastle on Boxing Day - had a total of 15 corners with each taking six.
It was the same total but each on seven corners in the last encounter at Villa Park while there were five each when Newcastle registered a 5-1 thrashing on the first game of last season.
Villa have seen the corner count hit double figures in eight of their 16 home league games this season while the figure stands at nine of Newcastle's 16 on the road.
The reason it falls short in the Villa games is mostly down to their opponents not contributing, but with a side who like to use their width up next, it should be a game where the corner count runs high once again.
There's even money floating around on that count making it to 11, although I'm happy to settle on a similar price that each team takes at least four.
Team news
Emery has virtually a fully fit Villa squad to choose from and will need to balance ensuring players are well-rested following the midweek action but also having a strong enough side to secure victory.
Ollie Watkins could start up front in place of Marcus Rashford, while Jacob Ramsey will be pushing for involvement from the off as well.
Newcastle continue to be without their manager Eddie Howe as he recovers in hospital from pneumonia.
Jason Tindall will take the team for a third game in a row and he's missing defensive trio Sven Botman, Lewis Hall and Jamaal Lascelles.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa XI: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Onana, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Asensio; Watkins.
Newcastle XI: Pope; Trippier, Schar, Burn, Livramento; Joelinton, Guimaraes, Tonali; Murphy, Isak, Barnes.
Match facts
- Aston Villa have lost five of their last six Premier League games against Newcastle (W1), as many as they had in their previous 16 against the Magpies in the division (W4 D7).
- Newcastle have won their last three Premier League games against Aston Villa, scoring at least three goals each time. Only against Tottenham have they won more consecutively while scoring 3+ each time in the competition (5 between 2006 and 2008).
- Aston Villa have won each of their last four Premier League matches, conceding just one goal. Villa are looking to win five in a row for the first time since April 2023.
- Only Liverpool (35) and Arsenal (28) have won more away Premier League points this season than Newcastle United (27). They’ve won eight away games this season, last winning more in 2001-02 (9).
- Since keeping five consecutive clean sheets at Villa Park in March and April 2023, Aston Villa have kept just six clean sheets in their last 37 on home soil. They are unbeaten in 15 home games (W8 D7) despite keeping just two clean sheets in that run.
- Aston Villa have missed three of the five penalties they’ve taken in the Premier League this season, a conversion rate of 40%. Among teams to take 5+ pens in a season, this is the lowest by a side since Southampton in 2019-20 (also 2/5, 40%).
- In all competitions, Newcastle United have won eight of their last 10 away matches (L2), with their only two defeats in that time coming at the Etihad and Anfield. Their away win percentage is 53% (10 wins in 19 games), only having a higher percentage in 2016-17 (54%, 14 wins in 26) in their entire history.
- Aston Villa had 48 touches in Southampton’s box in their 3-0 win last time out, their joint-most in a Premier League game this season. They’re averaging 27.2 touches in the opposition box this season, only having more in one season on record (since 2008-09), which was 28.4 last season.
- Jacob Murphy has had a hand in 13 goals in his last 17 away Premier League appearances for Newcastle United (4 goals, 9 assists), while he has three assists in seven games against Aston Villa.
- Per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, Marcus Rashford is having more touches (54), shots (3.8), creating more chances (2.8) and attempting more dribbles (5) for Aston Villa than he did for Manchester United (42 touches, 1.5 shots, 1.4 chances created and 3.5 dribbles).
Odds correct at 1150 BST (17/04/25)
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