Football betting tips: FA Cup
0.5pt Cardiff to win (Draw no Bet) at 12/1 (bet365)
1pt Perry Ng to be carded at 10/3 (Sky Bet, Unibet)
1pt Sivert Mannsverk to be carded at 10/3 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
This game comes at an awkward time for Aston Villa, who head to Club Brugge for the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie on Tuesday.
Unusually for Unai Emery, he's actually taken a domestic cup seriously this season, fielding strong teams against West Ham and Tottenham to get this far.
Cardiff are in a survival fight in the Championship but are at least in decent enough form ahead of a trip to a Premier League side, losing just two of their last 14 matches across all competitions.
What are the best bets?
Not only do Villa have a big game straight after, but they also have a lot of injuries to contend with.
Emi Martinez came off in midweek, joining Pau Torres, Boubacar Kamara, Amadou Onana and Ross Barkley on the sidelines.
Axel Disasi is cup-tied having played in the FA Cup for Chelsea, meaning Emery may be forced to either play key starters or rotate in some youngsters.
This is the classic 'look ahead' game, a match that the favourites are overlooking as a bigger test fast approaches.
That could lead to complacency, and perhaps a lack of intensity as key players won't want to pick up injuries or be overly fatigued for a trip to Belgium.
Add in Villa's record following midweek matches (W3 D6 L5) and the price about CARDIFF causing an upset starts to appeal.
This is the furthest Emery's Villa has made it in a domestic cup. They have history of being upset under the Spaniard, being knocked out by League Two Stevenage at Villa Park.
I'll take a bit of a swing here and back the visitors DRAW NO BET at 12/1.
The Bluebirds have been a tough team to beat of late, losing just two of 14. They eliminated promotion-chasing Sheffield United in the third round before ousting Stoke in round four - both away from home.
It'll only be small stakes but I wanted to get a big price on the upset on side, and given there are no replays, I didn't want to back Cardiff to qualify given they would have to play extra time and penalties on the day.
The draw no bet sees money back should the game end all square in 90 minutes, and I'd rather back that at 12s as opposed to the straight win at 15s given the firepower Villa could call upon from the bench.
I'll also have a small bet on PERRY NG TO BE CARDED at 10/3.
Referee Peter Bankes has averaged 4.37 cards per game this season, and has been card-happy in cup competitions, handing out tallies of seven and four in his two Carabao Cup dates as well as overseeing a six-card game in his sole FA Cup contest.
Ng is Cardiff's most carded player this season, with his nine some three more than anyone else, and that's despite playing only 2200 minutes across all competitions. That's a card per 90 average of 0.38, making the price available value, especially given he will be up against Villa's tricky forwards.
With a good referee appointment I'll also back Cardiff midfielder SIVERT MANNSVERK TO BE CARDED, again at 10/3.
He's played only a handful of games since joining the Bluebirds in January but has been carded three times, all in his last three appearances.
The Norwegian will be in for a busy night no matter who he's up against, and looks a great candidate for a card as the visitors scrap away to try and frustrate their hosts.
Team news
Unai Emery will rotate for this clash with a Champions League date in Brugge approaching, which could see starts for Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio.
Villa are still without Pau Torres, Boubacar Kamara, Ross Barkley and Amadou Onana, while Emi Martinez may not be risked for this one having come off at half-time in midweek. Axel Disasi is cup-tied.
Cardiff will have to call upon the services of second-choice keeper Ethan Horvath after Jak Alnwick suffered a season ending injury. The Bluebirds will also be without Ollie Tanner, Will Alves, David Turnbull, Jasper Daland and club captain Joe Ralls.
Aaron Ramsey could feature but is unlikely to play the full 90 minutes. Centre-back Dimitrios Goutas is back in contention after a ban while ex-Villa winger Anwar El Ghazi should be given the nod at his old stomping ground.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa: Olsen; Garcia, Konsa, Mings, Maatsen; McGinn, Tielemans; Rogers, Asensio, Rashford; Malen.
Cardiff: Horvath; Ng, Goutas, Fish; Rinomhota, Mannsverk, Ramsey, O'Dowda; El Ghazi, Robinson; Salech.
Odds correct at 1235 GMT (27/02/25)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
