Joe Rindl has the preview and best bet as Steven Gerrard looks to keep up his 100% winning record as Aston Villa boss as his side host Manchester City.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Man City to win with -1 handicap at evens (SpreadEx)
It’s been the perfect start for new Aston Villa manager Steven Gerrard so far with the former Liverpool midfielder overseeing a second win in his second game in charge at Villa Park.
After a 2-0 victory over Brighton a fortnight ago the Villains edged past Crystal Palace last weekend thanks to goals from Matt Targett and John McGinn.
The West Midlands outfit are now one of three sides sitting on 16 points, and a spot in the top half of the table could be theirs should results fall their way this week.
Manchester City at home will be the first true test for Villa under Gerrard. With the pressure off after their recent upturn in form, the hosts might shock a few with nothing to lose.
Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Wednesday
TV channel: Amazon Prime Video
Aston Villa 17/2 | Draw 17/4 | Man City 3/10
With Chelsea’s draw with Manchester United, Manchester City are just one point off the top spot after they edged out West Ham in a wintery Etihad last time out.
Ilkay Gundogan opened the scoring in the 33rd minute before assisting Fernandinho to wrap up the points. The Hammers did score a consolation goal in the dying seconds but the scoreline flattered them.
City were dominant; Pep Guardiola’s team won the xG battle 2.89 to 0.26.
Victory was City’s fifth on the spin in all competitions. They also have a fierce away record having collected 13 points from their last 15 on offer on the road.
I think Villa will get found out against City. In Gerrard’s two matches in charge so far his team have managed xG totals of 0.83 against Brighton and 0.45 against Palace.
City on the other hand are averaging 2.28 xGF per game and 0.67 xGA.
The Sky Blues sit top of Infogol’s expected points table, whereas Villa drop to 16th using the same model.
Punters should be confident backing MAN CITY TO WIN WITH -1 HANDICAP at evens with SpreadEx.
That’s a value play considering the visitors are at best 3/10 favourites in the outrights at the time of writing.
There’s a gulf in class between these two which the handicap markets aren’t reflecting.
Aston Villa v Man City best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Man City to win with -1 handicap at evens (SpreadEx)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-3 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (29/11/21)
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