Manchester City host a steadily improving Arsenal side in the Premier League on Wednesday - Joe Townsend looks at the betting.
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1pt Manchester City to win and both teams to score at 5/4
0.5pt Riyad Mahrez to score from outside the penalty area at 10/1
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Manchester City vs Arsenal
- Wednesday March 11 – 7.45pm Sky Sports Premier League
This is a really intriguing match for all sorts of reasons. Manchester City will be looking to quickly bounce back from defeat in the derby against Manchester United, Arsenal will be looking for a fourth straight Premier League win to potentially move up to as high as sixth, and Mikel Arteta will be looking to show just how much things have changed in three short months.
On December 15 at Emirates Stadium the Spaniard was in the away dugout alongside Pep Guardiola as City dismantled a rudderless Arsenal, then led by caretaker manager Freddie Ljungberg. Soon after that 3-0 thrashing, Arteta became Gunners head coach and he has so far overseen quite the turnaround.
In fact, since that day in north London, his former boss has suffered twice as many defeats as he has. But without doubt, a trip back to the Etihad presents Guardiola’s former assistant with the toughest test of his short managerial reign.
Arsenal have improved at both ends of the pitch since Arteta’s appointment, only failing to score in one of his 15 matches in charge, and keeping the opposition out in seven of those. Defensively Manchester City have been poor this term compared with their previous two campaigns, managing 10 clean sheets in 28 league matches and possessing only the fifth-best goals conceded record in the division.
Guardiola’s men have already passed the mark of 100 goals scored in all competitions, though. They’ve also managed a Premier League high 12 shots from outside the box which doesn’t bode well for Arsenal goalkeeper Bernd Leno, who can’t rely on his defenders to prevent those come shots from coming in. He’s had to deal with 104 this season – only the keepers of Newcastle and Tottenham have been busier.
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For all of Arsenal’s recent improvement, they have drawn a heck of a lot – half of Arteta's 10 league matches in fact. While the Gunners' involvement increases the likelihood of a draw, City balance that out having taken a point on just three occasions in the top flight this season.
For me, City’s defeat by Manchester United was a blip against a side that for whatever reason just seems to have the beating of them this season, which can often happen with local rivals. Prior to Sunday’s derby, Guardiola’s team had won five straight matches and were arguably beginning to recapture some of their best form.
I expect them to react well at the Etihad, especially if Kevin De Bruyne recovers from injury in time to return.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
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Manchester City vs Arsenal – Opta stats
- Manchester City have won their last six matches against Arsenal in all competitions, their best winning run against the Gunners.
- Arsenal have lost their last five league matches against Man City; they last had a longer losing run against an opponent between 1974 and 1977 against Ipswich Town (seven in a row).
- 12 of the last 16 Premier League goals Manchester City have scored against Arsenal have been scored in the first half, scoring at least twice in the first half of four of their last six Premier League meetings.
- Manchester City have lost seven Premier League games this season, one more than they had in their previous two campaigns combined. The average league position of their opponents in these seven defeats this season is 9th – Arsenal’s place in the table coming into this match.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last seven away league games (W1 D6), with each of their last five in a row ending level. The Gunners have never drawn six consecutive away league games in their history.
- Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta is unbeaten in all seven of his away games in all competitions for the Gunners (W3 D4) – the longest ever unbeaten away start to a managerial reign in Arsenal’s history.
- Sergio Agüero has scored 10 goals in his last 12 appearances against Arsenal in all competitions; he scored a hat-trick in Man City’s 3-1 Premier League win over the Gunners at the Etihad last season.
- Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola has never lost a home match against Arsenal in his managerial career in all competitions (P7 W6 D1 L0), with the Gunners netting exactly once in all seven previous encounters.
- Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been directly involved in six goals in his last seven Premier League starts against Arsenal (four goals, two assists), netting a brace in a 3-0 win at the Emirates earlier this season.
- On the day of this game, Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta will be the fourth youngest manager to face Man City’s Pep Guardiola in a top-flight league match, aged 37 years and 351 days. The youngest to beat Guardiola is Mauricio Pochettino in February 2009 with Espanyol vs Barcelona (36y 356d).
Odds correct at 1700 GMT on 08/03/20
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