Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Declan Rice to score anyitme at 9/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Jurrien Timber 1+ headed shot on target at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Jurrien Timber to score a header at 22/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
BuildABet @ 35/1
- Declan Rice 1+ shot on target
- Jurrien Timber to score a header
Arsenal are on the cusp of booking their spot in the knockout phase of the Champions League.
Victory over Dinamo Zagreb on Wednesday would put Mikel Arteta’s side on 16 points, keeping their fate in their own hands heading into the final game.
The Gunners' form has been patchy this month though (W2 D2 L2) and they have failed to keep a clean sheet since the turn of the year. They were knocked out of the FA Cup and trail in their Carabao Cup semi-final with Newcastle 2-0 at the halfway stage.
Injuries to key players have not helped. No sooner had Martin Odegaard returned before Bukayo Saka picked up a hamstring injury and now William Saliba faces a spell on the sidelines.
Despite leading 2-0 against Aston Villa on Saturday, Arsenal had to settle for a point after conceding twice in the final half an hour.
Arteta praised the ‘immense performance’ but the point leaves his side six points behind Liverpool domestically.
According to Opta, Arsenal’s now have only an 8% chance of winning the Premier League title which could prove to be a blessing in disguise, allowing them to focus on European and EFL Cup silverware.
They have been business-like in this competition, particularly at the Emirates, winning all three of their home games without conceding.
Arsenal are 1/10 to win and odds on to score 3+ goals which is why I think the player goalscorer market is worth a visit.
What are the best bets?
DECLAN RICE has failed to replicate his goalscoring form of last season. He netted seven times last term but has only found the net twice this time around; not for the want of trying.
Rice averaged 0.09 xG per 90 domestically in 2023/24 and is posting 0.08 this season. Despite these identical numbers, he has scored two goals fewer in the Premier League than he had at this stage of last season.
He was considerably over performing his underlying data last term so there is an argument the regression is expected.
Rice’s recent shooting statistics are also encouraging. Since his goal at Crystal Palace, Rice has had 10 shots, hitting the target with half, and his price TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals here.
Dinamo have conceded three times from set-pieces in the Champions League and Bayern Munich, Monaco and Borussia Dortmund’s centre-backs all had headed shots saved.
As one of the greatest dead-ball sides in Europe, Arsenal’s defenders are worth considering in the HEADED SHOT ON TARGET market and the standout price is JURRIEN TIMBER at 7/1.
Timber scored with his head against Manchester United in the league, one of two domestic headed shots on target, and he had three shots against Newcastle in the Carabao Cup, all with his head, one of which found the target.
All of those headed shots have come across his last 12 starts during which time Timber has had nine shots: six with his head, hitting the target with three of them.
For context, across his previous 15 starts the defender only had six shots: none with his head, failing to hit the target at all.
Considering Dinamo Zagreb’s shortcomings from set-pieces, the 22/1 for Timber TO SCORE A HEADER also appeals.
Team news
Arsenal will be without Saka and Saliba on Wednesday joining Gabriel Jesus, Ben White, Ethan Nwaneri and Takehiro Tomiyasu in the treatment room.
Riccardo Calafiori is unlikely to recover from a muscle strain in time leaving Oleksandr Zinchenko and Myles Lewis-Skelly competing to start at left-back.
Against Villa, Timber partnered Gabriel Magalhaes in central defence and Thomas Partey slotted in at right-back. Arteta could opt for the same defence here.
After a brace of assists at the weekend, Leandro Trossard could continue on the left of a front three alongside Kai Havertz and Raheem Sterling with the latter replacing Gabriel Martinelli.
As for the visitors, Dinamo Zagreb are missing experienced frontman Bruno Petkovic and could also be without promising midfielder Petar Sucic. Sandro Kulenovic should spearhead their attack on Wednesday.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal: Raya; Partey, Timber, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Jorginho, Rice; Sterling, Havertz, Trossard
Dinamo Zagreb: Nevistic; Ristovski, Theophile-Catherine, Mmaee, Pierre-Gabriel; Ademi, Stojkovic; Cordoba, Baturina, Pjaca; Kulenovic
Match facts
- Arsenal have won three of their four meetings with Dinamo Zagreb across all competitions (L1), while this will be the second UEFA Champions League campaign in which they’ve faced in the group/league phase. Both teams won their home fixture in the 2015-16 edition, with the Gunners winning 3-0 at the Emirates.
- No Croatian team has ever won away from home against an English side in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League (D1 L3), with all four of those previous attempts being by Dinamo Zagreb.
- Arsenal have won their last two UEFA Champions League matches, winning by three or more goals in each game. They’ve never done so in three European Cup games in a row, while in major European competition they only did this once – in four games in a row in 2020-21 in the UEFA Europa League.
- In their first four UEFA Champions League games this season, Dinamo Zagreb netted 10 goals from 42 shots (24% conversion rate), but they have failed to score with any of their 16 shots in their last two games.
- Since the start of last season, no side has won more home UEFA Champions League matches than Arsenal (W7 D1) and their 21 home goals are bettered by only three teams. In this timeframe, the Gunners have also kept the most home clean sheets of any side (7).
- Arsenal haven’t conceded a single goal from open play in the UEFA Champions League this season, with both of their goals conceded coming from set pieces (one corner, one penalty). Indeed, the Gunners have the lowest xG faced from open play in the competition this term (2.4).
- Dinamo Zagreb have won their last two UEFA Champions League away games, winning more games and the same number of points as they did in their first 25 away matches in the competition (W1 D3 L21). They’ve netted eight goals in three away games this season, only two fewer than they managed across their eight previous campaigns in the competition (10).
- Among teams to have scored 20+ UEFA Champions League goals in the last two seasons, the only player involved in a higher percentage of his team’s goals than Bukayo Saka for Arsenal (14/30, 46.7%) is Harry Kane for Bayern Munich (47.4%, 18/38), with Saka scoring eight and assisting six but he will miss this game through injury.
- Only Borussia Dortmund’s Jamie Gittens (4) has scored more away UEFA Champions League goals this season than Dinamo Zagreb’s Sandro Kulenovic (3). In their major European history, the only Zagreb player with more than three away goals in one season is Bruno Petkovic in the 2020-21 Europa League (4).
- In 30 starts in the UEFA Champions League, Gabriel Jesus has been involved in 25 goals (19 goals, 6 assists), while for Arsenal alone he has four goals and three assists in seven starts. His last hat-trick in the competition was against Dinamo Zagreb in December 2019 for Manchester City.
Odds correct at 1415 BST (21/01/25)
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