Arsenal v Tottenham tips: Premier League Super Sunday preview and best bets
Super Sunday gives us the North London derby as Arsenal face Tottenham and Tom Carnduff has found three best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Son Heung-min to have 1+ offsides at 11/10 (Sky Bet, Ladbrokes)
1pt Harry Kane to score from outside the area at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Dele Alli to have 3+ tackles at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
A huge game on the Premier League calendar but one that doesn't quite have the same spark as we have seen in previous seasons - Arsenal and Tottenham meet at the Emirates with both sides hardly catching the eye for the right reasons.
Tottenham's 7th place in the table is deceptive in that they should be 17th according to Infogol - based on expected points - while Arsenal's position in 13th highlights what an uninspiring season it has been so far.
Their only victories have been single-goal triumphs over Norwich and Burnley but they could have easily left Turf Moor with less than three points in their last league outing. For Tottenham, it's consecutive 3-0 defeats.
A North London derby with fans back though could create a feisty affair with both teams desperate for victory. There is value to be had, although that comes in steering clear of the outright result.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Arsenal 6/5 | Draw 23/10 | Tottenham 9/4
The number of markets available for this game has created some interesting betting opportunities. I remain strong in the belief that stats-based bets are the ones that aren't always priced up correctly - more so than any other market - and the same can be said for this game on Sunday.
One interesting market is the offsides because of the odds against price on SON HEUNG-MIN TO HAVE 1+ OFFSIDES. That is something he has done in two of his four Premier League outings so far.
I'm not particularly put off by the more lenient interpretation of the offside law this season - offside will still be offside - and that has perhaps pushed out the prices more than what we saw during the 2020/21 campaign where offside calls were, frankly, a complete and utter shambles.
It hasn't done much to affect Son's statistics in this area during the opening weeks of the new season. Throughout his career at Tottenham, he's averaged more than one offside every two games and that's the rate he's going at currently. In a game such as this - with Spurs looking to attack with pace - there is every chance that he goes too early.
All three recommended bets relate to Spurs players and sticking in the stats markets flags up another generous price. At 3/1, DELE ALLI TO HAVE 3+ TACKLES looks far too big given his numbers since Nuno Espirito Santo's arrival at the club.
He's benefitted from the head coach change in simply the number of minutes he is currently seeing but a role in central midfield has seen his average tackles count increase.
Having previously been anywhere between 1.0 and 1.5 tackles per game in previous Premier League seasons, Alli has made two or more successful tackles in all five of his league outings so far. He also had three tackles during the Carabao Cup success against Wolves in midweek.
It's not unrealistic to ask for three or more tackles in this fixture given the numbers he has been posting so far. At a best price of 3/1 with Sky Bet, that is a real value play.
Harry Kane was the Premier League's top goalscorer last season - netting 23 goals in total - but a surprising figure is the number of those that came from outside the area. Only West Brom's Matheus Pereira scored more (5) from distance than Kane (4) in 2020/21.
This means that a significant 17% of Kane's goals came from outside the area. It's not exactly a new thing either - near 17% of his goals in 2019/20 were also scored from range.
With 16/1 available, I like the gamble of backing KANE TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA. A start and goal against Wolves was what he needed following a mixed start - it's certainly more appealing than the 15/8 best price on a goal to come anytime.
The outright market provides little appeal here given the uncertain nature of both teams. Neither has done enough to inspire and that market is best avoided. Instead, the value comes in backing ALLI, KANE and SON to be involved.
Arsenal v Tottenham best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Son Heung-min to have 1+ offsides at 11/10 (Sky Bet, Ladbrokes)
- 1pt Harry Kane to score from outside the area at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Dele Alli to have 3+ tackles at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1100 BST (24/09/21)
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