Title-chasing Liverpool visit top four chasing Arsenal in a huge Wednesday night clash. Jake Osgathorpe, who is +22.8pts profit in the Premier League, has the best bet and preview for the game.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Liverpool to win at 19/20 (General)
Boy is this now a big game for Liverpool, and us neutrals who want to see a nail-biting title race, after Manchester City dropped points on Monday night at Crystal Palace.
Those dropped points for the reigning champions mean that Jurgen Klopp's men can cut the gap to one point with victory at the Emirates. Some incentive.
And the Reds are hot coming into the game, with a 2-0 win over Brighton their eighth straight league win, all deserved according to expected goals.
However, Arsenal do represent the best of the rest currently, posting underlying numbers far superior to any other team in the top flight outside of the top three.
Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Wednesday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Arsenal 11/4 | Draw 11/4 | Liverpool 10/11
The Gunners do deserve respect ahead of this game, particularly as it is at home where Mikel Arteta's side have been at their very best this season.
They have won 10 of 14 league games, losing two, in front of their own fans, winning the xG battle in 12 and averaging 2.12 xGF and 0.99 xGA per game.
The only two games they have lost on both actual and xG score? Against Manchester City and Chelsea.
And their record against the so-called 'big six' this season reads; six games, five defeats. Their only win against a fellow big six team came at home to Tottenham when they were in dire straights under Nuno Espirito Santo.
This is no slight on Arsenal, as they have vastly improved under Mikel Arteta and will likely be very competitive in this game, but the gulf between the Gunners and the current top three - mainly the top two - is monstrous.
Based on xGD per game, which is the metric we use to indicate a teams xG process, Liverpool and Manchester City are literally in a league of their own.
The pair are streets clear of even Chelsea, with Liverpool nearly a full xG better per game than the Blues over the course of the season so far. That is extraordinary.
In fact, Klopp's men have taken over at the top of this chart, with their xGD per game of +1.75 meaning that on average, Liverpool win the xG battle by that figure, so are consistently creating a heck of a lot more than their opponents.
For context ahead of this game, Arsenal's xGD per game of +0.37 is good enough for them to rank fourth, but is nearly five times inferior to Wednesday's opponents.
Infogol quantifies a 'big chance' as having an xG total of 0.35 or greater. So, Arsenal are on average one big chance per game better than their opponents - Liverpool are on average five big chances better per game than their opponents.
All of this shouldn't come as much of a surprise given the incredible attacking power they have in their team, but what is extraordinary, after all that has been discussed, is the near even money available for LIVERPOOL TO WIN this game.
Not only are the Reds posting the best underlying numbers in the Premier League, but they have the added motivation heading into this game of moving to within one point of leaders Manchester City.
With a game at the Etihad fast approaching, the tighter they can make that gap the better their chances of winning the Premier League title.
Infogol's model calculates that the difference between a win and a draw at the Emirates, in terms of chance of winning the league, stands at nearly 9%, with a victory increasing their title chances to greater than one in three.
The odds on offer don't really reflect the difference in quality and maturity between these two sides. Only at Manchester United - before we realised how bad United were and how good Liverpool were - and at Chelsea have the Reds been bigger than 7/10 for an away game this season, being that price at Antonio Conte's Spurs who aren't too far behind Arsenal.
I would make the Reds closer to 17/20 as opposed to 19/20, and whenever Liverpool are available at bigger than 4/5 they are a must-bet in my opinion. You would never see Manchester City anywhere near even money for any league game other than at Stamford Bridge or Anfield, with Pep's side going off at 13/20 at the Emirates on New Year's Day.
That seems a bit disrespectful to Liverpool and how good they actually are, and besides, Arsenal's five-game winning run has come against Wolves (twice), Brentford, Watford and Leicester... Let's not get carried away heading into this match-up against a juggernaut.
Snap up the away win.
Arsenal v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Liverpool to win at 19/20 (General)
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1030 GMT (15/03/22)
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