Leicester City v Aston Villa betting preview: Analysis, prediction, stats and best bets for Monday Night Football in the Premier League
Monday Night Football comes from the King Power, as top-four chasers Leicester host relegation-battling Aston Villa. George Pitts looks at the betting.
Recommended bets
1pt Aston Villa in draw no bet at 23/4
0.5pt Anwar El Ghazi to score anytime at 5/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leicester City v Aston Villa
- 2000 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
It seems like a long time since Aston Villa's last outing eight days ago, but Dean Smith will be hopeful they are refreshed after a few days on the training ground with the hope they can take the positives back into the Premier League.
The Villans were edged 2-1 by Man City in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley last weekend, but they put up a second-half fight and Claudio Bravo's late save denied them the chance to take it to extra-time.
Smith said at his press conference how proud he was of their effort (see below video) and spoke of how their focus switches immediately to keeping their place in the division.
If his side perform with the fight and desire they showed on the big stage, then they are in with a real chance, but it is much easier to get motivated for a cup final and that is the challenge they face.
The hope for them here is that they face an out of form Leicester side against whom they have avoided defeat in their two meetings so far in 2020.
The Carabao Cup semi-final saw them draw the first leg 1-1 before Villa scored deep in injury time to win 2-1 in dramatic second-leg scenes at Villa Park.
With that psychological boost and the fact Leicester have won just two league games so far in 2020 - and one in their last six in all competitions (narrowly in the FA Cup against Birmingham in midweek) - Villa certainly have a chance under the floodlights here.
The Foxes have been performing far worse than those glittering early-season performances which led to whispers about a title charge. Jamie Vardy is off form, without a goal since December 21, and they really do struggle when their top marksman is not firing.
With this in mind, you cannot confidently be backing Brendan Rodgers' side at a general price of 4/11. Aston Villa are a best price of 15/2 to win and, even though they are away from home, it is the time of season where struggling teams are desperately fighting for points and it really is tempting to side with them, either to win the game or with a goal start on the handicap.
But more appealing is the price of above 5/1 on them in a draw no bet. This gives you an insurance in the case of the points being shared while still having a stake on the visitors to win at such a price. In the Premier League anything can happen and this Leicester side have shown to be prone to slip-ups in the second half of the season.
In addition to that and the big prices favouring the away side, there are also some eye-catching odds in the goalscorer market.
Forward Anwar El Ghazi has six goals to his name this season, plays in Villa's front three and has a high shooting rate - so the anytime price on him at 5/1 looks worth taking for a small play.
The 24-year-old Dutchman averages nearly two shots per game over the course of the league campaign, but it is his stats against the big boys that stand out, as well as his efforts coming in a flurry.
In their home outing against Tottenham last month he had five shots in 70 minutes, against Man City in January - that 6-1 defeat - he also registered five efforts, as well as another five in the reverse fixture against Leicester.
He also had five and four shots against Norwich and Burnley respectively earlier in the season and two against City in last week's final.
If backing him to score does not tempt you, then El Ghazi to have 3+ shots at 100/30 is another worthy option.
Should he start, El Ghazi could be the man to help Villa seal some much-needed points and the prices available on him are just too good to turn down.
Score prediction: Leicester 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 22/1)
Best bet:
Opta stats
- Leicester City are looking to complete a league double over Aston Villa for the first time since the 1996-97 season.
- Aston Villa have won just one of their 10 away Premier League games against Leicester, winning 5-0 in January 2004 under David O’Leary.
- Aston Villa are without a win in nine Premier League away games played on Monday (D2 L7), since a 3-1 victory at Liverpool in August 2009 under Martin O'Neill.
- Leicester City have lost their last two Premier League matches on a Monday – last losing three in a row on this day back in September 2001 under Peter Taylor.
- Leicester City have failed to win any of their last four matches in the Premier League (D2 L2), failing to score in their last three. The Foxes last went four consecutive top-flight matches without scoring back in February 2017 (6), during Claudio Ranieri’s final six matches.
- No Premier League side has conceded more goals via set pieces (inc. penalties) this season than Aston Villa (18), while no side has shipped more goals via corners than the Villans (9).
- Aston Villa have won just eight points away from home in the Premier League this season, only Norwich City (6) have collected fewer on their travels. However, four of those eight points have arrived in their last four outings (W1 D1 L2).
- Leicester forward Jamie Vardy has gone 641 minutes without a Premier League goal, attempting just 10 shots and landing four on target in the process.
- Jack Grealish has been directly involved in 38% of Aston Villa’s 34 Premier League goals this season (7 goals, 6 assists) – more than any other player. Indeed, Grealish has provided eight assists in all competitions this term, his best tally in a single campaign.
- Leicester’s Kelechi Iheanacho has been directly involved in eight goals in his last five appearances against Aston Villa in all competitions, scoring six goals and assisting two. He has scored in all three games against them this season for the Foxes – the last Premier League player to score against the same side in four different games in a single season was Romelu Lukaku vs West Ham in 2014-15.
VIDEO - SPORTING LIFE AT WEMBLEY
Odds correct as of 1200 GMT on 06/03/2020
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