Antonio Conte and Mikel Arteta have Tottenham and Arsenal on right track
North London is white.
Tottenham's 5-0 win at Norwich meant Arsenal's own 5-1 thrashing of Everton was in vain, with Spurs securing fourth and a place in next season's Champions League.
Arsenal have really let things slip, but Antonio Conte's appointment was an inspired decision that is the main catalyst behind Spurs usurping their rivals.
Having said that, it's hard to argue that Mikel Arteta could have got more out of his current group of players.
The positives far out-weigh the negatives for both teams, so let's take a look at their progress from an underlying numbers standpoint, and assess what is next for the pair.
The Conte effect
The job Antonio Conte has done at Tottenham isn't getting the credit it deserves.
Not only has he taken them from ninth to fourth, but he has improved their underlying process by a simply remarkable amount.
Nuno Espirito Santo had Spurs trending in a hugely worrying direction, with performances more in line with a relegation threatened team, but for Conte to come in and make them legitimately the third best team in the league is an incredible achievement.
He has improved them by 1.46 xG per game since taking over from Nuno, with their expected goal difference (xGD) per game under Conte at +0.91 compared to -0.55 under Nuno.
Tottenham have collected 0.75 more expected points (xP) per game under the Italian, which over a full 38-game season would equate to an improvement of 28.5 expected points. The value of a top-class manager in this day and age cannot be understated.
We saw a similar uplift - albeit not as radical - when Thomas Tuchel took over at Chelsea last season, and so you have to give the Tottenham hierarchy the credit for bringing him in.
It is worth pointing out that Conte now has Spurs at similar levels to what we saw in the peak Mauricio Pochettino era, as the blow rolling xG chart shows.
In simple terms, blue is good and orange is bad, and the bigger the area the better or worst the underlying process is. From 2016 to half-way through 2018, Spurs were performing like a title contender, but in 2019 things started to derail, with the gaps between blue and orange getting smaller.
Jose Mourinho's tenure displayed peaks and troughs without much consistency, while Nuno's spell was all orange, highlighting that his Spurs team were conceding more and better chances than they were creating on average. Conte's time so far is all in the blue.
If we go from the 2016 start date, Conte actually ranks as the best manager Tottenham have had, if we look at xGD per game. Poch oversaw 126 league games in that time and posted an xGD per game of +0.58.
Mourinho was in charge of 58 games and had a negative xGD of -0.02, with Nuno, who only managed 10 games, an even worst -0.55.
Hopefully that puts into perspective the job Conte has done at Spurs, and goes someway to emphasising the fact that Tottenham currently have one of the very best occupying their dugout.
Not only is the turnaround impressive, but the speed in which the changes and the uplift has happened is remarkable - and on the fly too with no pre-season.
Tottenham absolutely deserve to finish fourth this season, and the future looks very promising as long as they keep Conte at the club.
Cream rises to the top
The present isn't so bad for Spurs either, with one of the key contributors to Spurs beating out Arsenal for fourth being the quality differential between the squads, especially in forward areas.
The likes of Harry Kane and Heung-min Son would walk into any Premier League side, and that isn't really the case for Arsenal's young front line, as much potential as they have.
England captain Kane has thrived under Conte after being starved of service under Nuno. Through 10 games under the Portuguese manager, Kane had racked up 1.9 xG at an average of 0.23 per 95 minutes.
Under Conte he has been on the end of chances equating to 17.5 xG at an average of 0.64 per 95 mins, which is more in line with his averages over recent seasons.
Along with Kane, Son has been sensational for Conte, and January signing Dejan Kulusevski has made an instant impact, and those three players have been difference makers in big games - Arsenal don't have many of those in their team currently.
Somewhat ironically, the Gunners gave away their biggest goal threat for free in January. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang still leads Arsenal in terms of xG/95 this term and has had a big impact at Barcelona, scoring 11 times and averaging 0.82 xG/95.
Could Arteta have done any more?
At the start of the season, the Infogol model gave Arsenal just a 10.4% chance of finishing the season in the Champions League places, meaning we thought it was highly unlikely.
The fact that they have come so close is a testament to the progress made at the Emirates, and in fact their xG process has improved year-on-year.
Last season's xGD per game average of +0.22 ranked eighth best in the league, this season's +0.40 ranks fifth best.
More importantly, this 21/22 season under Arteta is statistically the best Arsenal team we have seen in the post-Arsene Wenger era - based on xGD per game.
Somewhat ironically given the way he was chased out of the club at the time, since Wenger was replaced, Arsenal haven't got near the levels the Gunners displayed under the Frenchman. This season is the closest yet.
It is still heading in a positive direction under Arteta, but it is taking them an age compared to how quickly Conte turned things around at Spurs, though that is more down to the crop of players Arteta inherited than his managerial ability - not that he's on the same level as the Italian just yet.
Ultimately, as close as they have come this season, Arsenal have been only the fifth best team in the Premier League, and so deserve to be where they currently are.
What next for Tottenham and Arsenal?
Even though the Gunners are improving incrementally, the pace of that transformation is just too slow.
Given what is happening elsewhere in north London, it is likely they will fall even further behind their rivals next season.
Tottenham's xGD per game of +0.91 since Conte took over may be some way short of Manchester City (1.83) and Liverpool (1.59) but it is marginally better than Chelsea's (0.90). While challenging for the title next season would require another monumental jump, finishing above Chelsea is a very realistic aim.
As for Arsenal, who knows for how many years they will be left to linger on such a pivotal north London derby defeat.
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