- Jake's 26/27 Predictions: Staked 77.3pts | Returned 74.35pts | P/L -2.95pts | ROI -4%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday 14:00 - Bournemouth vs Liverpool
1pt Justin Kluivert to be carded at 15/4 (bet365) - min price 5/2
Sunday 14:00 - Leeds vs Crystal Palace
2.5pts Leeds to win at 4/5 (General)
Sunday 14:00 - Man City vs Sunderland
1.5pts Manchester City win to nil at 6/5 (General)
Sunday 16:30 - Fulham vs Man Utd
1pt Josh King to score anytime at 3/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair) - min price 2/1
1pt Youri Tielemans 1+ shot on target outside the box at 4/1 (bet365) - min price 2/1
Bournemouth vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
If Bournemouth weren't coming into this game on the back of their first ever European match, and win away from home at Real Sociedad, then I would be all over the Cherries beating Andoni Iraola's Liverpool.
Bournemouth have been impressive so far this season without the results showing as much, too many late goals costing them, while the Reds continue to underwhelm.
Throw in the fact this is Iraola's first game back at the Vitality and the hosts will be bang up for this, but I just wonder how much they have left in the tank after their midweek exploits.
This game will be an open, end-to-end encounter as that's just how both of these sides are built to play, and the stretched nature could result in fouls and cards, with plenty of cynical fouls on show, and I can't resist the 15/4 about JUSTIN KLUIVERT TO BE CARDED.
His card record since joining Bournemouth is tremendous.
Kluivert has collected 24 cards across three and a bit seasons at an average of 0.35 per 90 which is a remarkable figure for a forward player and highlights just how cynical he is.
He comes into this game having committed 1.51 fouls per 90 this term, picking up three cards in his last four outings, so the price on offer is very generous.
Michael Oliver is the referee here and he's fresh off a five card Manchester derby, so isn't the worst referee for cards.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Leeds vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Tennis
- Live odds, form and stats
Leeds were mightily impressive on Monday, just as they have been all season long so far. The Whites were dominant against Newcastle to get their second win of the season, and their eight points from a possible 12 has to be upgraded based on what I think has been a tough schedule.
While it may seem a square play, at the prices LEEDS TO WIN has to be backed, especially how poor Crystal Palace have looked defensively, and the fact that the Eagles played in the Europa League on Thursday.
Pierre Sage's side shipped three at home to Ipswich last week, taking their goals conceded tally to a league high 11, and it's not by accident, with the Eagles allowing the most xG through four games.
Even in midweek at home to a poor Lech Poznan side they shipped 1.55 xG, being fortunate to keep a clean sheet. Things may only get worst for their trip to Elland Road too given the suspension of starting middle centre-back Axel Diasi.
Leeds meanwhile have now won eight of their last 14 home league games, losing only three, as they have turned Elland Road into a fortress once more.
So, all things point to a home win and I don't think the market has reacted enough to Leeds' strong showings and Palace's poor ones, with 4/5 a confident bet.
Score prediction: Leeds 3-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Manchester City vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Is Enzo Maresca turning Manchester City into a much, much better version of his Championship winning Leicester team?
The Foxes were all about control with limited sizzle, strangling teams to death rather than pummelling them. Well, the early signs are that City are operating the same way, or at least at this stage of the season.
It's a far cry from how open Pep Guardiola's side were over the previous 18 months, with this version of City looking far more secure defensively and I think this approach gives them a much better chance of winning silverware.
I said in my outright column that the fact Arsenal are so trustworthy, reliable and repeatable gives them a fantastic chance of winning successive titles, with the Gunners' floor so much higher than everyone else.
Well, the way City are going about things has seen their floor get higher in my opinion, and they are beginning to be much more trustworthy in knowing what to expect week in and week out.
The Cityzens are 1/4 to win here but we can back a CITY WIN TO NIL at 6/5 and that looks the way in here given how they are trending.
Since their Community Shield mauling, City have conceded just two goals in six games across all competitions, allowing a measly 0.68 xGA per game.
On Sunday they host a Sunderland side who were beaten 2-0 at home by Arsenal last weekend in a game they created just 1.00 non-penalty xG, and in midweek they played in the Europa League in what was a physically and mentally taxing win against AZ Alkmaar.
A trip to the Etihad is probably the worst game possible after such a contest, especially as last season they struggled away against the better sides.
The Black Cats were winless in eight trips to top nine finishers, losing five and failing to score in five, while away at the top two they were beaten 6-0 on aggregate. A repeat could be on the cards.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Fulham vs Manchester United
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Michael Carrick is a man under mounting pressure. Defeat at home to Manchester City, who played with 10-men for nearly 70 minutes, followed by a blown 2-0 lead in the Carabao Cup makes this feel almost must-win.
11/10 about the Manchester United win is one to avoid, as while Fulham are winless in the league under new manager Alvaro Arbeloa, they come into this clash buoyed by two good displays, while their performances at home have been impressive this term.
The Cottagers drew at Anfield last weekend before beating West Ham away in the Carabao Cup, while at Craven Cottage they are winless in the league but pushed Chelsea all the way in their opener before losing 3-2 to Crystal Palace in a game where they took 25 shots equating to 3.14 xG.
Attack hasn't be an issue, and given how leaky United have been, it shouldn't be an issue once again here, but it's JOSH KING's price TO SCORE ANYTIME is worth revisiting.
We were on him at Anfield and he was excellent, taking four shots, hitting the target with two of them and being a constant threat throughout the afternoon.
The 19-year-old has scored in both of Fulham's home league games so far this season and looks to be his side's biggest goal threat.
We'll also have a bet on YOURI TIELEMANS 1+ SHOT ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX at 4/1.
The price looks big for the United midfielder, who is very happy to pull the trigger from range. In the Premier League since joining United five of his six shots have come from outside the box, with two hitting the target, this bet winning against Ipswich and Everton.
In the midweek Carabao Cup defeat, Tielemans took three shots from range, going close with one of them, and it's no surprise looking at his record at Aston Villa last season.
A whopping 21 of his 33 shots (63%) last season across all competitions came from distance, with nine of those hitting the target (0.32 per 90).
If we factor in his start to this season, Tielemans has averaged 0.33 shots on target from outside the box per 90 since 25/26 began, and that equates to a blanket price of around 2/1, so nearly double the price makes plenty of appeal here against a Fulham side who do concede a lot of shots.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
All Odds correct at 16:00 BST (18/09/26)
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