Alex Keble's Premier League match-ups: Upsets for Arsenal and Man City?
- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.
Rodri vs Cunha & Hwang
- Man City vs Wolves
- Sky Sports Main Event: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/12 | Draw 19/2 | Away 22/1
Three of Manchester City’s four remaining Premier League matches will have almost identical tactical battles, and the first of these is the biggest challenge to Pep Guardiola’s hope of ending the season with nine consecutive victories.
Wolves will follow what Nottingham Forest did last weekend because it is the obvious route to scoring against Man City – and because it almost worked for Nuno Espirito Santo. His team accrued 1.93 xG to City’s 0.87 xG by sitting deep, blocking spaces in the final third, and launching counter-attacks that focused on dribbling with the ball down both flanks.
It is a disarmingly simply approach that succeeded (or would have if Chris Wood hadn’t missed so many big chances) because Rodri was overworked at the base of midfield and because - with wingers Jeremy Doku and Jack Grealish pushed so high - there was plenty of room either side of Rodri to gallop into on the break.
Admitting defeat, Guardiola brought on Mateo Kovacic for Doku at half-time to make things more secure in the middle.
Wolves did something similar in the reverse fixture, a 2-1 win for Gary O’Neil’s side at Molineux, although that day Pedro Neto was the main ball carrier and Rodri was suspended , making the task considerably easier. Nevertheless, assuming Guardiola does not move to a double pivot in midfield (unlikely given City are at home), Wolves have a decent chance of causing problems on the break.
Matheus Cunha has been superb since his return from injury, scoring twice and assisting another in his last two matches, and his assist for Hwang Hee-Chan’s goal in the win against Luton Town last weekend was significant because it was the first time these two had combined for a goal.
Hee Chan back on the scoresheet! 🇰🇷 pic.twitter.com/nNhW3Ngmdk
— Wolves (@Wolves) April 27, 2024
In fact, it was the first they had started a game together this season. Hwang and Cunha has a lot of potential as a partnership. This won’t be easy for Man City.
Arsenal’s left-back v Iraola’s hard-pressing transitions
- Arsenal vs Bournemouth
- TNT Sports: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/5 | Draw 6/1 | Away 11/1
Bournemouth will be considerably more aggressive at the Emirates than Wolves will be at the Etihad, but the end result could be similar.
Andoni Iraola has performed miracles at Bournemouth with his fast and direct system that combines a superbly drilled press with rapid transitions once the ball is won back, and the higher they regain possession the better.
In that respect it isn’t far from how Tottenham play, at least in terms of how and when to press during the opposition build-up phase, and when faced with that challenge last weekend Mikel Arteta instructed David Raya to kick it long. He didn’t want to risk being caught passing out from the back.
But at home, and against a team in tenth, Arsenal are unlikely to be so conservative – which gives Bournemouth a fighting chance.
Arsenal have conceded seven goals in their last six games in all competitions and in three of those games – against Bayern, Aston Villa, and Spurs – they had wobbly spells at the back. This should encourage Bournemouth, whose pressing traps target the weakest defender and generally tend to work; they are in the top six in the Premier League for PPDA (10.8) and high turnovers (315).
It isn’t yet clear who Bournemouth’s press will target, but you can bet it will be Arsenal’s left-back. Whether Takehiro Tomiyasu, Oleksandr Zinchenko, or Jakub Kiwior, this is the player most likely to be caught in possession or to panic when looking for a pass in their own third.
Things are made more complicated by the various positions they might be asked to play; if inverting centrally they become even more vulnerable to being caught. Arteta is likely to be wary of Iraola’s pressing, however, and therefore will probably keep his left-back and right-back wide, fielding Jorginho to hold alongside Declan Rice.
If Arsenal can assert early dominance via Jorginho and Rice then they can break Bournemouth and make this another comfortable home win. But there is a new doubt creeping in at the back. Any fragility and Bournemouth will pounce.
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