- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.
Ten Hag’s pressing v deep line
The most important tactical question has nothing to do with City. Throughout the season Erik ten Hag’s team have been too decompressed between the lines because his forwards have begun to press hard while the centre-backs step backwards, creating an unforgivably poor pressing structure.
The Fulham result was a typical example. The visitors easily moved the ball through the thirds, taking advantage of enormous patches of grass in central midfield as United’s team ran away from each other, elongating the pitch. It is genuinely staggering to see a Premier League team press so ineptly in 2024, and yet the problem is getting worse and worse.
However, Ten Hag has tended to sit his team a lot deeper in ‘Big Six’ matches and if he chooses to do so at the Etihad then his team’s defensive problems might disappear. If United sit off, don’t press the centre-backs, and concentrate on shuffling across in a compact block, then the stretched-pitch problem won’t occur and City will be left having to break down a stubborn blockade.
Pep Guardiola’s side have struggled to do that at times this season, and they certainly did last year, when United beat them 2-1 at Old Trafford holding 29% possession.
Prior to the Luton game in midweek, City had scored just three goals in their last three matches, but Luton’s wide formation – they pushed too far up, pressing City high and hard – meant they were cut open. Here was evidence of why Ten Hag must drop his team deeper on Sunday. If he doesn’t, United will be ripped apart.
City defence v United attack
But even if Ten Hag moves everything back, United have plenty of flaws that can be exploited. The biggest one – again, as we saw against Fulham – is a lack of numbers in central midfield, and the ease with which teams can work the ball wide before moving back inside into the gaps.
In an out-of-possession 4-4-2 formation, more often than not United’s front two and wingers fail to press effectively, leaving the opposition defenders free to pass diagonally into the full-backs, breaking the first line of the press. From here, a simple pass inside puts the ball into an area in which only two midfielders – Casemiro and Kobbie Mainoo – will be occupying.
Consequently, City’s 3-2-4-1 is a dangerous shape to be facing United. Guardiola’s wingers can drop to get passes from the three centre-backs, at which point that square pass inside can find one of four players – Kevin de Bruyne, Phil Foden, Rodri, and John Stones – in a four-on-two against the United midfielders.
The only way to prevent this is if United’s wingers are more disciplined, and if the front two (most likely Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes) successfully cut off the passes into Rodri, before quickly shuttling backwards once the ball is at the feet of a United winger. History suggests Ten Hag won’t have coached his players to do this.
Ten Hag’s Hojlund-less counters v Man City’s porous middle
Without Rasmus Hojlund, United’s counter-attacking threat has been severely diminished, and one of the big question marks hanging over the game is how Ten Hag will line up the front three in United’s in-possession 4-3-3.
What he tried at Fulham didn’t work; Rashford (up front) and Alejandro Garnacho (on the left) were both diminished by being moved around. A better option would be to deploy Fernandes as a false nine, therefore allowing Rashford to return to the left and Garnacho to return to the right, where they had found form before the Fulham defeat.
The added benefit here is that United can add a third central midfield, deploying Casemiro, Scott McTominay, and Mainoo in a blockade against the City onslaught, with McTominay stepping up alongside Fernandes when City are in possession. McTominay and Fernandes are far better pressers than Rashford, too.
City aren’t as good at preventing counter-attacks as they used to be, and while Rodri remains at the top of his game he could struggle with Fernandes if the United captain was dropping off the front line, unseen, to be the link player. Certainly, having Rashford on the shoulder of the last defender seems the wrong way to counter, since first United will have to break the Man City counter-press.
Chelsea, who created numerous chances on the break in the 1-1 draw, consistently found Nicolas Jackson, who went untracked by dropping off the front. Fernandes would do this better than Rashford.
Haaland-De Bruyne connection v Casemiro & Maguire
But there are simpler tactical battles to talk about, the main one being how a slow and ponderous United side cope with the interactions between De Bruyne and Erling Haaland, who combined for four goals at Luton on Tuesday.
Casemiro is not the player he was and is often second to the ball these days, which should hand De Bruyne a huge advantage, while Harry Maguire and Rafael Varane both lack pace. Even if United are sat deep, Haaland’s runs ought to outwit these two, while De Bruyne will surely find the space he needs to play Haaland in.
Worse still for the visitors, the yawning gap that is opening between their defence and midfield will be stretched by longer and more direct balls towards Haaland, while defensive injuries mean either Sofian Amrabat or Victor Lindelof will be target at left-back, handing Phil Foden the edge.
There are so many small, obvious ways that Man City are the better team; the overwhelming likelihood is that City will breeze through the game and Ten Hag’s job will come under threat.
Yet as we saw at Old Trafford last season, a disciplined, patient, and defensive United setup could – if they catch their hosts on a slow day – spring a surprise.
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