Alex Keble's Premier League match-ups: Manchester City vs Arsenal
- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.
Guardiola’s next big idea v Arsenal’s newfound caution
- Man City vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 10/11 | Draw 13/5 | Away 29/10
The end of the Klopp-Guardiola rivalry signals the beginning of a new one, and although a master-and-apprentice dynamic means no clash of tactical philosophies, Mikel Arteta versus Pep Guardiola could grow into something just as interesting.
There is already history between Arsenal and Manchester City; already a clear tactical journey of move, counter-move, and counter-counter-move through their last few meetings. It isn’t widely reported on, but that’s because this fixture has only just been brought into the light.
It’s worth briefly going through their Premier League games since Arsenal first started to look like a proper Arteta team (or, to put it another way, a proper Guardiola team) towards the end of the 2021/22 season.
Following a 5-0 win for Man City, Guardiola was lulled into thinking it would be easy and, leaving Rodri alone at the base, was shocked by a very aggressive man-to-man press through midfield. Arsenal overwhelmed Man City, only to collapse in the second half and lose 2-1.
In 2022/23, Guardiola, a little stunned, over-corrected with a wonky 3-2-2-3 in which Bernardo Silva was left flailing in a left-back/centre-mid role. Bukayo Saka dominated Silva’s spaces and Arsenal should have won… only to, again, collapse under the pressure and lose 3-1.
For the second meeting that year, Guardiola finally cracked the code, this time negating the man-to-man Arsenal press with a wide 4-2-4 that used the full-backs as outlets and Kevin de Bruyne and Erling Haaland dove-tailing as direct forwards getting on the end of longer passes. The Arsenal press was broken and City were comfortable 4-1 winners.
Earlier this year, a 1-0 win for Arsenal was again the result of adapting to what had come before. The man-to-man press now solved, Arteta opted for a far more cautious approach and Arsenal won a constipated game at the Emirates.
Can City cope without Stones?
The history is laid out here mainly to say: we don’t know what will come next. It is Guardiola’s turn to shake things up; to counter-punch Arsenal’s caution.
The most likely option is finding a way to connect De Bruyne and the in-form Phil Foden in the centre-left space, where Arsenal – still cautious, packing the midfield with bodies – are slightly vulnerable because of Saka’s defensive deficiencies.
But Guardiola could do something completely unexpected. He knows Arteta knows him inside out, and that means trialling something new to coax Arsenal out of their more conservative shape.
We can expect to see Mateo Kovacic in a reined-in position alongside Rodri - even though that will only clog things up further - because John Stones’ injury means there is nobody to step up.
That could, in turn, force Guardiola into utilising traditional wide full-backs again, in the hope of decluttering midfield while pinning Gabriel Martinelli and Saka. Truthfully, there is no use trying to guess what Guardiola will have come up with. Whatever it is, it will be interesting - and match-defining.
Havertz v Rodri
That’s not to say Arsenal will simply sit back. They will still want to gain a foothold in the game and hold as much possession and territory as possible, just without pouring bodies forward to leave the gaps for De Bruyne and Haaland to burst into.
Their best hope is that Rodri, previously overwhelmed in the second match of 2022/23, is overworked by the sheer number of Arsenal midfielders working in the pockets of space around him.
Chief among those is Kai Havertz, who has scored in each of his last four Premier League appearances and is excelling as a false nine, dropping deeper to receive possession and help swarm the opponent.
Arsenal’s eight consecutive wins in the competition have been based on total control, through Declan Rice and Jorginho, mixed with Havertz’s capacity to link with Martin Odegaard and release the two wide players ahead of him.
Chances will be few and far between at the Etihad, but keep an eye on how Havertz moves around Rodri. There is always the chance that Kovacic will go missing and provide scant resistance.
Their unfamiliarity together is a potential weak point that hands a small advantage to Havertz, as well as to Gabriel Martinelli, who will look to get in behind a team lacking Walker’s recovery speed.
It’s enough to give Arsenal a very slight edge, but with Man City unbeaten in 38 Premier League games at the Etihad, a newly-cautious Arteta would gladly take a draw. Kovacic and Rodri, Rice and Jorginho, and forwards instructed not to abandon their post: it points to a nervous contest with few clear-cut chances.
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