Alex Keble's Premier League match-ups: Any chance of a final day upset?
- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.
Doku v Coufal
- Man City vs West Ham
- Sky Sports Main Event, 16:00 BST Sunday
- Home 1/11 | Draw 19/2 | Away 20/1
Nobody is giving West Ham a chance. David Moyes’s side tend to drop far too deep in the latter stages of matches and with nothing left to play for it seems extremely likely that Manchester City will get the result they need – even if chasing goals in the dying minutes, as they were against Aston Villa two years ago.
But it isn’t quite hopeless for Arsenal. West Ham went into the break 1-0 up in the reverse fixture, their defensive shell proving tough to unlock until the second half, when City scored three. What made the difference in the end was a traditional route around the outside of the blockade: Jeremy Doku was superb, completing more progressive carries (13) and attempted take-ons (8) than anyone else on the pitch.
More importantly, he also scored the equaliser that sparked the comeback. Doku received the ball in space on the left, drove at Vladimir Coufal, and cut inside to score. Coufal had been struggling one-on-one all through the first half, too, as Doku’s trickery created two big chances that Erling Haaland put wide.
If Doku starts then Coufal is likely to suffer again, and worse still Kevin de Bruyne – who was absent at London Stadium – is back to his very best. He has 10 assists and four goals in just 17 games this season and, floating in that right half-space, the chances are West Ham will be sucked towards him… creating more room for a switch out to Doku on the left.
Odegaard & Saka v Young
- Arsenal vs Everton
- TNT Sports 1, 16:00 BST Sunday
- Home 1/6 | Draw 13/2 | Away 14/1
The game at the Emirates will be very similar in style to the one at the Etihad. Everton are superb at squeezing space between the lines and minimising risks in possession, which is why only Arsenal have kept more clean sheets in the Premier League than their 13.
It will be attack versus defence – and a real slog for a nervous Arsenal side unlikely to find the tempo required to pull Sean Dyche’s players out of position. But they should be able to get over the line thanks to a slight mismatch on Everton’s left side, where Ashley Young tends to become slightly disconnected from his centre-back in key moments.
Everton are excellent at defending the penalty area, but if they have one weakness it is playmakers clipping through balls over the top from 30 yards out, which can drop behind the back four and cause panic.
Alexis Mac Allister’s passes like these created good chances for Darwin Nunez in Liverpool’s 2-0 defeat at Goodison; Martin Odegaard should be able to play these, and you would back Arsenal’s forwards to be more clinical.
What’s more, Arsenal’s goal in the 1-0 win in the reverse fixture was built down Everton’s left side, as Bukayo Saka and Odegaard combined to tee up Leandro Trossard. The key battleground, then, is around Young, who will be packpedalling as Odegaard spots Saka’s runs.
But the gaps will be very small, and assuming anxiety will be reverberating around the Emirates Everton will be confident of a fifth clean sheet in six Premier League matches.
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
