Alex Keble's Carabao Cup match-ups: A battle of chaos versus caution
In 2022, Liverpool and Chelsea faced each other in the Carabao Cup and FA Cup finals. Both matches finished 0-0 and with Liverpool winning on penalties, and although the two games had their fair share of drama 240 minutes of football without a goal is pretty grim.
Thankfully, that shouldn’t happen this year.
Mauricio Pochettino is not a patient possession manager like Maurizio Sarri and this ‘Liverpool 2.0’, as Jurgen Klopp has nicknamed his final incarnation, is not the Liverpool team that controlled matches in 2022.
Both Chelsea and Liverpool are a little unpredictable in the middle of their respective transitional years. Both are happy to press hard and indulge in the carnage.
Here are the key match-ups at Wembley.
Disruptive counter-press v wingers
We should start with Liverpool’s 4-1 win at Anfield in January, when the hosts were electric in their first match since finding out Klopp was resigning at the end of the season.
Their counter-pressing was sensational and the urgency of their attacking play simply blew Chelsea way; Pochettino’s side could barely get out of their own third, and whenever they did Liverpool immediately hit back down the flanks.
The first and most important match-up, then, is between Liverpool’s ultra-attacking wide players and Chelsea’s wingers, who regularly struggle to get back in time to help their over-worked full-backs.
Conor Bradley, who made his debut in the 4-1, is likely to put Ben Chilwell under significant pressure should Raheem Sterling fail to track back, while on the other side Andrew Robertson’s return suggests just as much pressure behind Conor Palmer.
Then again, Liverpool’s counter-press, and the resultant spaces that open up behind Chelsea’s wingers, might not be as effective this time. Liverpool aren’t as energetic away from Anfield, Dominic Szoboszlai is likely to be unavailable, and – most important of all – Pochettino may have a fix for the problems that arose that day.
Pochettino pragmatism v Klopp chaos
The sensible thing for Chelsea to do is sit in a tightly-compressed midblock 4-4-2, just as they did last weekend in the 1-1 draw with Manchester City.
The primary benefit is that Pochettino’s wingers will sit close to the full-backs, thereby negating the Liverpool threat out wide, but it also means Nicolas Jackson and Conor Gallagher can block the passes through midfield.
However, that system worked against Man City because Pep Guardiola coaches slow and patient build-up, allowing the opposition to form a regimented defensive shape. By contrast, Klopp’s Liverpool embrace the chaos by playing lots of long balls forward that stretch a deep-lying opposition.
Look out for raking diagonals from the Liverpool centre-backs that, aiming for Darwin Nunez, might force Chelsea to scramble backwards, in turn triggering a scrappy midfield battle, an elongated Chelsea formation, and ultimately an end-to-end contest.
If the long balls don’t work – if Chelsea are rigid and calm under pressure – then Liverpool can be slowed down, but only if Pochettino’s side also come out on top in the midfield battle…
Gallagher tackling v Endo & Mac Allister
Gallagher’s hard-tackling mentality is essential to Pochettino’s tactics. He leads the way from the front, hounding the opposition midfielders in an attempt to win the ball in the middle of the park and set his team away in the transition.
Throughout the 2023/24 season we have seen Alexis Mac Allister respond superbly to attempts to do this. He is one of the best number sixes in the country when it comes to evading the press with a clever line-splitting pass, although in Gallagher he faces a formidable opponent.
What’s more, Szoboszlai’s absence means Mac Allister is likely to start as a number eight, and Wataru Endo is considerably less comfortable operating in tight spaces. If Gallagher is prompt, and if Pochettino has set pressing traps that look to isolate Endo, then this could lead to rapid Chelsea counter-attacks.
But if Endo and Mac Allister remain in control, finding a way to manoeuvre around Gallagher, there is a good chance Liverpool will come out on top, either in a more open end-to-end battle, or by pinning Chelsea back as they did at Stamford Bridge.
And in either instance, the combinations between Mohamed Salah and Darwin Nunez are likely to overwhelm Ben Chilwell and Levi Colwill, which isn’t the most dynamic of partnerships on that side.
Jackson-Palmer counters v Robertson
In better news for Chelsea fans, Liverpool’s deployment of a high defensive line continues to cause them issues against fast counter-attacking teams, and therefore Chelsea can find joy if Jackson performs as well as he did at Man City.
With Robertson getting forward, there will be space for Jackson to drop off the front and link with Palmer, as he did so successfully on numerous occasions at the Etihad, regularly helping Chelsea get behind the City high line.
Then again, Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate are arguably less vulnerable then Man City were; the physical strength of Liverpool’s defenders could shrug Jackson off the ball.
But if the Luton Town game is anything to go by, Liverpool’s injury crisis means they won’t quite be in their usual rhythm, therefore opening a window for Chelsea to sit off a little, remain compact, and hit Klopp’s side on the break.
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.