Senegal v Egypt
Pre-tournament favourites Senegal have made it the AFCON final, as they search for their country's first continental title.
It is hard to argue that they don't deserve to be in the showpiece event, being by far the best attacking team according to xG, even though eight of their nine goals have come in the knockout rounds.
Ultimately, they have found their groove from an attacking perspective post-group stage, but defensively they have remained extremely resolute.
They have conceded just two goals, allowing 0.50 xGA per game at the tournament, which should be a concern for an Egypt side who have consistently struggled to carve out good chances.
The Pharaohs have hit the net just four times at AFCON 2021, winning two ties on penalties after goalless 120 minutes, with their xGF per game average of 1.07 some way behind Senegal's 1.63.
Granted, Egypt have most certainly had the tougher run to this stage, having played Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Morocco and host nation Cameroon - four of the best teams on the continent.
Senegal are yet to face a team of that stature until this final, so Egypt do deserve more respect for making it this far.
However, it has to be factored in that they have also played 120 minutes in all three knockout games, meaning they have played an extra 90 minutes than their opponents over the tournament which could prove decisive given the heat and humidity they have had to play in.
Couple that with the fact that Egypt have been very fortunate to have conceded only two goals at the tournament (6.5 xGA - 1.08 per game), and SENEGAL TO WIN looks a solid selection here.
They have the better underlying numbers, the better indivduals and more rest time, so the odds-against quotes about them winning in 90 minutes should be taken.
Score prediction: Senegal 2-1 Egypt (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1400 (04/02/22)
