Football betting tips: AFCON Final
1pt 0-0 HT correct score at 6/4 (William Hill)
1.25pts Morocco to lift the trophy and Under 2.5 goals at 7/5 (bet365)
On Sunday AFCON’s final chapter will be written as Senegal and Morocco lock horns to define the 2026 champions.
Both nations head to Rabat unbeaten, although the hosts did require a dramatic penalty shootout against Nigeria in the semi-finals to make it this far.
But despite that uneasy moment for the home fans, the pre-tournament market was spot on. Morocco were the clear 5/2 favourites to win in their own back yard and now just Senegal stand in their way to complete the job. But will it be that simple?
The Lions of Teranga have won all but one of their six matches en route to the final. And aside from an early scare against Sudan in the round of 16, Pape Thiaw’s side have controlled their matches - which included a 1-0 win against Egypt in the semi-finals, sending Mohammed Salah back to Liverpool without a shot of the AFCON trophy once again.
However, their place in the final came at a price. Al Hilal’s Kalidou Koulibaly came off injured in the first half and his tournament came to an abrupt end there and then. The 34-year-old towering centre-back will have to watch from the sidelines - a huge loss for Senegal.
Habib Diarra will also miss out due to suspension. The Sunderland midfielder has been a key part of Senegal’s success in Morocco but his yellow card vs Nigeria has proved costly.
Perhaps, with those two out, the hosts have the edge they need, and why once again the market is siding with Atlas Lions.
Eight of Morocco’s nine goals have come through Real Madrid’s Brahim Diaz (five) and Olympiacos’ Ayoub El Kaabi (three). If Senegal are to record their fifth clean sheet at AFCON these two will need stopping. Easier said than done, mind you.
At the other end of the pitch, Morocco have been just as defensively sound as Senegal. Adam Masina and Nayef Aguerd’s partnership has been solid, while both Noussair Mazraoui and Achraf Hakimi have been flawless on the flanks.
Only one of Morocco’s games have gone over 2.5 goals, which came against Zambia in the group stage. Three, however, of Senegal’s games have produced over 2.5 goals - with the Lions of Teranga firing three goals against Botswana, Benin and Sudan.
Morocco will have to keep tabs on Sadio Mane and co - but their defence is a cut above those who have been broken down against the finalists.
Those key players missing for Senegal will be - in particular Koulibaly who has not only been a rock at the back but is one of the leaders within the dressing room. Going to battle without him will likely impact the team however much Thiaw dismisses it.
With so much at stake, it would be a shock if this was a final filled with goals. Senegal have failed to score in their last three finals (2002, 2019 and 2021) and that’s an unwanted trend that may well continue for them.
The HALF-TIME CORRECT SCORE 0-0 at 6/4 certainly catches the eye. Neither nation will want to show their hand early - and Senegal’s approach may slightly change without their star defender.
But it’s also incredibly difficult to look past the hosts completing the job. They may have used their get out of jail card against Nigeria, but with the quality they possess in the final third, it may only take one goal TO LIFT THE TROPHY so we'll back them to reign supreme alongside UNDER 2.5 GOALS for a 7/5 shot.
Odds correct at 10:00 (16/01/26)
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