Napoli head north to face Milan in the first leg of this all-Italian Champions League quarter-final tie. Liam Kelly previews the game and provides a best bet.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Over 11.5 Milan shots at 4/5 (Unibet)
It’s fair to suggest we shouldn’t expect a similar result to the last time these two Serie A sides met.
Milan trounced champions-elect Napoli ten days prior to this fixture, winning 4-0 as visitors to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
There’s no doubt as to which team has been better over the course of the campaign, however. Napoli have not only been the best team in Italy, they’ve perhaps been the best team in Europe.
Indeed, that was Milan's only good result in their last five league fixtures, even though they've been creating chances at a solid rate.
They've breached the 2.0 expected goals (xG) mark in five of their last seven Serie A games, but the avenue of reaching that point is of most interest when it comes to a bet for this match-up.
Stefano Pioli's side have averaged 15 shots per game across those matches, including 14 at Napoli, unafraid to have a pop at goal.
That makes the 4/5 available with Unibet for OVER 11.5 MILAN SHOTS a solid selection.
Admittedly, Napoli are my fancy in this overall tie, a terrific team that absolutely deserve to be destroying their domestic league. If they do take a lead, it should only serve to enhance the chances of this bet.
San Siro is a mightily tough place to visit, though, as Tottenham found out in the previous round.
Milan recorded 2.40 expected goals for (xGF) from 22 shots when hosting Napoli in the league this season, albeit in defeat.
That was at a point when the visitors looked unstoppable. As a result, the 11.5 line looks low right now.
AC Milan v Napoli best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Over 11.5 Milan shots at 4/5 (Unibet)
Score prediction: AC Milan 1-1 Napoli (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (10/04/23)
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