Ben Linfoot assesses the latest official ratings from the BHA and one from Ireland as well following Cheltenham's International Meeting in the latest 'Weights & Measures'.
Thrilling International serves up Festival clues
- My Tent Or Yours >>>> Remains on 162
- The New One >>>> Remains on 163
- Melon >>>> Up 4lb to 159 (Irish mark)
The horse that came out best at the weights in Saturday’s Unibet International Hurdle was the one that made the least ripple in the large pool that is the Cheltenham Festival ante-post markets.
While third-placed Melon was trimmed into a 16/1 third favourite for the Champion Hurdle and the winner My Tent Or Yours was cut to 25s from 40s in the same market, runner-up The New One was pretty much left alone at odds as big as 25/1 for his primary Festival target, the Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle.
Giving 6lb to old rival My Tent Or Yours proved too tough a task this time, but his length-and-a-quarter defeat meant he would’ve come out on top off levels and he successfully put a length between himself and Melon with both carrying 11-6.
It was further evidence that The New One isn’t far off his very best form despite the fact he is approaching a double-digit birthday and he absolutely deserves his retained 163 rating following two excellent performances in handicaps and his International second this season.
That sort of rating is enough to put him in the mix for Stayers’ Hurdle honours and, who knows, it could well be that the three-mile trip will improve his current form.
Despite having run 34 times in a career spanning six years, Nigel Twiston-Davies has never run him over a trip as far as three miles. In his novice season he was campaigned over 2m4f and 2m5f, culminating in his only Cheltenham Festival triumph in what is now the Ballymore, but that’s as far as he’s ever gone.
After four failed attempts at the Champion Hurdle, it’s time to try something new. A new trip for The New One. And could the new kid on the block in the Stayers’ Hurdle division be overpriced at 25/1? Given he’s considered just 1lb and 4lb inferior to market leaders Nichols Canyon and Unowhatimeanharry respectively, the ratings suggest he might be.
As for My Tent Or Yours, he stays on 162 and this was his day in the limelight. Receiving 6lb from The New One and Melon, race conditions were in his favour and he got away with ground being slightly softer than ideal.
Second in the last three Champion Hurdles, he’ll have a fight on to finish as high as that in this season’s rankings if both Faugheen and Buveur d’Air turn up in top form, but there’s every chance he can be best of the rest given he can improve on this effort on spring ground.
There’s obviously a feeling that the ‘B’ team were sent out from both Seven Barrows and Closutton at Cheltenham on Saturday, but, while we know where we are with My Tent Or Yours, there remains the potential for Melon to rank much higher come the end of the season.
The Irish assessor has raised him 4lb to 159 now, not bad after just five hurdle starts. In comparison, Buveur D’Air was rated 151 after five starts over hurdles, while Faugheen was considered just a 2lb better animal on 161.
And there is certainly room for improvement with Melon. He was too keen in the early stages on Saturday and was a bit short of room two out as well, so to finish as close as he did considering his relative inexperience says a lot about his natural talent.
Off a harder gallop in a Champion Hurdle this strong traveller could have a big say. It’s no wonder he’s third favourite and, if he continues his improvement on his current trajectory, he’ll be much closer to the front two in the betting come March.
Clan worth his weight in Gold
- Guitar Pete >>>> Up 5lb to 139
- Clan Des Obeaux >>>> Remains on 155
- King’s Odyssesy >>>> Down 1lb to 139
The fatal injury to Starchitect just as he was about to land the biggest win of his career in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup was devastating and never has a feature race at Cheltenham been greeted with such subdued applause.
The winner, Guitar Pete, traded at 1000/1 in-running on Betfair when Starchitect went clear, but Nicky Richards’ horse stayed on best up the hill once the race changed complexion and he overhauled favourite Clan Des Obeaux who had worked hard to get to the lead.
It’s tough to put numbers on those that prevailed in the finish given what happened to Starchitect, but the handicapper went with a 5lb increase for the winner, the only horse to go up in the weights, with Clan Des Obeaux left alone on 155.
Everything came together for Guitar Pete on Saturday in that it was a relatively small field, the ground wasn’t too testing and Foxtail Hill ensured it was run at a good clip. Things won’t always go so smoothly for him, as they didn’t in the BetVictor, and a sound gallop looks essential to his cause.
Given the right scenario I’m sure he can be competitive off 5lb higher, but I wouldn’t have thought any moderate gallops in deep midwinter ground would be his thing. Therefore, we might not see the best of him again until the spring, but if he sneaks into one of the better handicaps off a low weight he’d be a danger to all.
As for Paul Nicholls’ Clan Des Obeaux, this was an excellent run off top weight and one that can propel him to better things. He gave 24lb to the winner for less than a three-length beating and was cajoled along half a mile from home before taking the lead just before the last.
It's not the first time he’s shaped as though three miles would bring out the best in him and he lost nothing in defeat after not being able to go with the winner, giving him so much weight, after the last.
This five-year-old is in the right hands to progress and while connections will probably adopt a patient approach with him over the next few months it would be no surprise to watch him develop into a 160+ horse before the season’s end.
King’s Odyssey ran well in third but the ground needs to be even more testing for him to be at his absolute best. Dropped another pound, he’s well-handicapped and will have a good few options at this track in January when the ground is likely to be right up his street.
Hike Of The Meeting
- Kilbricken Storm >>>> Up 10lb to 147
Perhaps a slightly surprising one here with Kilbricken Storm going up 10lb for his Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle win over Count Meribel.
Only four runners turned up in this, which was disappointing in itself, and then the well-fancied Equus Secretus didn’t run up to form after running too free down to the start and during the race, while Global Stage didn’t seem to stay.
Count Meribal ran well off the front end and looked set to win jumping the last, but that’s when Kilbricken Storm’s stamina kicked into overdrive and he stayed on strongly to win going away, despite hanging to his left up the hill.
He got 3lb from a 138-rated rival on Saturday and beat him less than three lengths, but the handicapper was impressed and put him up 10lb to a new mark of 147.
Generally 25/1 for the Albert Bartlett and even 33s in a place, those sort of odds are massive if you believe in his new rating. Indeed, only Death Duty was rated higher than that going into last year’s Albert Bartlett.
However, on balance, I would be inclined to side with the bookies over the handicapper on this one.
Down, down, down, down
- Knockgraffon >>>> Down 3lb to 141
- Romain De Senam >>>> Down 2lb to 143
- Movewiththetimes >>>> Down 1lb to 144
Three horses from the International Meeting that have been ever-so-slightly dropped by the assessor but could be worth keeping an eye on for various assignments later in the campaign…
Down three at 141… Knockgraffon, who was outpaced over two miles on his stable debut for Olly Murphy. The trainer reported on Racing UK beforehand that he’d probably come on for the run despite having first time everything (tongue-tie, cheekpieces and a wind op as well) and he certainly shaped like that, while a step up in trip could help too. He’ll be interesting over further off his new mark with that run under his belt.
Down two at 143… Romain De Senam, the Caspian Caviar fifth and he ran okay in the race despite ground conditions going against him. He’s only 4lb higher than his last win now and he’ll be interesting in the spring when he encounters a better surface. I’ve no doubt he can resume his upward curve then.
Down 1lb at 144… Movewiththetimes, who has shaped well in three novice chases now without winning. Saturday’s run behind Kalondra was probably his worst yet, but this was the softest ground he’s encountered over fences, too, and at least another pound was shaved off his rating. We’ve said it before but we’ll mention it again, the novice handicap at the Festival, now a 0-145, looks his bag.