Our form expert has tipped 11/1, 15/2, 5/1 and 10/1 winners in his last four Verdict columns, including Wednesday plunge Jingko Blue, and he has four selections for day three at Cheltenham.
The Verdict: Thursday March 12
1pt e.w. La Conquiere in 13.20 Cheltenham at 18/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Moon Rocket in 14.00 Cheltenham at 66/1 (William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Ma Shantou in 15.20 Cheltenham at 6/1 (General)
1pt win Bold Endeavour in 16.40 Cheltenham at 12/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
Back Lavelle to strike again in Stayers’
They switch to the New Course at Cheltenham on Thursday and it looks like a bit of rain will hit the track during racing, though the more significant weather is set for the evening going into Gold Cup day.
It’s likely the ground will remain largely Good to Soft given the current forecast and there are a few shorter-priced favourites to consider on day three with Bambino Fever, Wodhooh and Fact To File all dominating the markets for their respective races.
I don’t want to take on Fact To File in an otherwise weak-looking Ryanair Chase and while he could put on a show the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle looks the more interesting open championship race on the card.
Teahupoo is the favourite here but the combination of the ground and the lack of obvious pace in the race make him vulnerable and I want to bet against him.
Kabral Du Mathan has more than a touch of star quality about him and he could be the one to thrive off an average gallop, but there is a chance he’ll fail to settle well enough over three miles and that’s a concern at 9/2.
The one to be with is Emma Lavelle’s MA SHANTOU at 6/1, as he has racked up a large batch of impressive course and distance form and he has been brought along so well by his trainer you have to believe there is more to come from the seven-year-old.
It helps that Lavelle has been here before with Paisley Park and she has given this horse a very similar campaign, resulting last time in a clear career-best in the Cleeve Hurdle, traditionally a very strong trial for this race, where he stormed up the hill for a decisive win.
The most impressive aspect of that performance was how strong he was to the line after the last and that looks a clear indicator he has the speed to deal with a messy contest, while he looks extremely versatile when it comes to underfoot conditions.
He ticks a Cheltenham box Honesty Policy doesn’t and with age on his side against the likes of Bob Olinger, Home By The Lee and Hewick, he looks well placed to mount a strong challenge under Harry Cobden.
The Verdict: Back MA SHANTOU in the 15.20 Cheltenham
Snowden to Conquiere Dawn Run again
Earlier on Bambino Fever will bid to justify skinny odds in the opening Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ (Dawn Run) Hurdle and she’s well-respected after getting back on track last time.
Willie Mullins’ mare does look the class act in the race, especially on her bumper form, but the one niggle is she might prove best over hurdles going out in trip and while I’d stop short of laying her, I don’t mind an each-way bet against her.
Jamie Snowden and Gavin Sheehan won this race with You Wear It Well three years ago and their representative this year, LA CONQUIERE, brings in a similar level of form and if anything looks a sharper type.
Another good bumper horse – she was second in the Grade 2 Nickel Coin at Aintree – she has quickly developed into a much better hurdler, winning her first two at Uttoxeter and Newbury and was particularly impressive at the latter track.
She comes into this under the radar because she was beaten at Ascot last time, but there was no shame in that defeat, as Ben Jones stole the race on Ooh Betty with a superb front-running ride and La Conquiere, beaten half-a-length, improved on her form again in second.
I thought she travelled really nicely at Ascot, showing she has the gears for this sort of race, and she hurdled better than she had at Newbury, too, so there were plenty of positives and she should’ve learnt loads in defeat.
The nature of this race will suit her better and at big prices she’s worth an each-way punt.
The Verdict: Back LA CONQUIERE in the 13.20 Cheltenham
Shoot for the Moon in the Jack Richards
The Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase could turn into a test of stamina with a likely strong gallop forecast on the New Course and with that in mind Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls’ MOON ROCKET looks a massive price at 66/1.
He’s a point-to-point winner who has mainly been campaigned over three miles, but he looked sharp over fences on his chasing debut at Doncaster and he’s well worth trying here given the likely nature of this race.
As a novice hurdler he beat Ma Shantou in the River Don off level weights and he ended up in Grade 1 company at the end of his campaign, but he looked even better over fences on his first two starts over the bigger obstacles before he got stuck in the mud at Windsor last time behind Brown Advisory third Salver.
Presumably he made a noise there, as his trainers gave him wind surgery after that and they’ve applied a tongue-tie here, a piece of kit with which Bailey has a strike-rate north of 20% first time up - indeed, Bailey & Nicholls have remarkably had five winners and a second with their last six runners in the t1.
Moon Rocket has the previous incarnation of this race in his blood, too, as his dam is a full-brother to Tully East who won the old novice handicap chase at this meeting in 2017, and Bailey has popped up with handicap winners like Darna, Imperial Aura and Chianti Classico at this meeting over the last decade or so.
At a huge price, he’s certainly worth an each-way roll of the dice.
The Verdict: Back MOON ROCKET in the 14.00 Cheltenham
Bold play in the Pertemps
Finally, Nicky Henderson has his team spot on and after landing a plunge in the BetMGM Cup with Jingko Blue on day two for owners Countrywide Park Homes, he could be at it again with their BOLD ENDEAVOUR in the Pertemps Final.
This horse used to be trained by Henderson when he was a close-up fourth in this race two years ago off a mark of 143, but he went to Laura Morgan’s for 18 months and plummeted down the weights to a mark of 130.
Back at Henderson’s after 369 days off, he qualified on his return for the yard at Huntingdon in January and the way he ran there he’s expected to improve quite significantly for the outing.
Whether he’s quite the force of old is up for debate, but he’s so well treated on his old form he’s hard to resist at 12/1 with James Bowen doing the steering again, just like on BetMGM gamble Jingko Blue.
The Verdict: Back BOLD ENDEAVOUR in the 16.40 Cheltenham
Preview posted at 16:00 GMT on 11/03/26
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