Leading racing blogger Stuart Williams has a fancy in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Gone are the days where Cheltenham Festival handicaps are won by a horse who arrives in the Cotswolds with a string of duck-eggs next to their name following countless runs on the wrong ground or over a completely inadequate trip.
In truth, these days handicap contests at the World Cup of racing are merely graded races in disguise. If in doubt, just take a look back at last year’s winners, with Stayers Hurdle fancy Supasundae landing the Coral Cup, Gold Cup contender Road To Respect making a mockery of the Brown Advisory Plate and Un Temps Pour Tout, who defied a mark of 155 to secure back-to-back victories in the Ultima Handicap Chase, all demonstrating the importance of class.
Indeed, nowadays the trick is to look for a horse who has rock solid form in the book and the potential to progress much further. With this is mind, there is only one place to start - the form-book.
Like any racing egg-head, I like to imagine that I possess a database containing hundreds of form-lines in the deepest, darkest echelons of what I like to believe is my brain. However, sometimes it is not until you look back at a race and see how the collateral form has worked out that you realise just how strong a form-line may be.
Take the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton for example, where Nicky Henderson’s talented eight-year-old William Henry got the better of a potential-packed field under the guidance of talented conditional jockey James Bowen.
The runner-up and sixth placed horse, namely Spiritofthegames and Coeur Blimey, placed third and fourth in the ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle at Newbury next time out. While the fourth and seventh home, Topofthegame and Le Patriote, have subsequently landed competitive handicap contests at Sandown and Ascot respectively.
With just five starts to his name over hurdles, it doesn’t take a huge stretch of the imagination to believe that William Henry could be a Grade One horse in the making. Therefore, a mark of 151 is no barrier to success in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham.
Connections won the race with fan-favourite Whisper, who scored from a mark of 153, in 2014. With plenty of smart course form already in the book, the son of King’s Theatre must go close.
Stablemate Diese Des Bieffes finished fifth in the Lanzarote Hurdle and is also worth keeping in mind with Cheltenham on the horizon.
Two comfortable wins preceded a fine second-placed effort behind the unbeaten novice If The Cap Fits at Kempton, who was the general second favourite for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle prior to suffering a setback at home.
To run as well as he did against smart opposition on just his fourth start over hurdles was very promising indeed. And, having initially looked slightly outpaced in the home-straight, the five-year-old displayed a pleasing attitude when battling on bravely all the way to the line.
Henderson ran this season’s hugely progressive hurdler Thomas Campbell (fifth) in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle last spring and I could easily foresee Diese Des Bieffes lining up in that very contest this year, where having a top class conditional jockey like James Bowen is obviously a huge advantage.
The stamina-searching two-and-a-half-mile test of the New Course at Prestbury Park could prove ideal for the Jared Sullivan owned gelding at this stage of his career. A mark of 137 could easily underestimate his ability and he's 10/1 (non-runner/no bet and Best Odds Guaranteed) with Sky Bet.
For more of Stu's blogs visit his website jumpsmanracing.wordpress.com and follow him on Twitter @Jimbo_JumpsMan
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