Our form expert has five selections for Betfred 2000 Guineas day at Newmarket on Saturday.
The Verdict: Saturday May 2
0.5pts e.w Apollo One in the 13.45 Newmarket at 22/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt win Botanical in the 14.20 Newmarket at 13/2 (General)
1pt win Beckford’s Folly in the 14.55 Newmarket at 14/1 (General)
1pt win Five Ways in the 14.55 Newmarket at 25/1 (General)
1pt win Distant Storm in the 15.35 Newmarket at 9/2 (General)
Storm to thunder home in the Guineas
It doesn’t look a vintage renewal of the Betfred 2000 Guineas with Aidan O’Brien’s Gstaad the lowest Timeform top-rated horse in over 30 years and in some ways it’s no surprise he has found his way to the top of the betting.
After all, O’Brien could have run plenty here but he relies on one colt under Ryan Moore and he handled a mile and fast ground well when winning in Del Mar at the Breeders’ Cup last November.
That wasn’t the strongest Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but his juvenile form has more depth than that, notably his second to the ill-fated Gewan in the Dewhurst over seven furlongs on this track where he was keen to post, and in the race, before running well.
The Dewhurst looks the key piece of form with the fifth and sixth home Oxagon and Alparslan winning the Craven and Greenham this spring, respectively, but I fancy Charlie Appleby’s DISTANT STORM to come out on top on Saturday.
This son of Night Of Thunder was third in the Dewhurst after previously sauntering home in the Tattersalls Stakes, but he was done no favours by either Alparslan or Gewan after a less than clear run up the stands’ side.
I thought he did well to get third with William Buick going easy on him once his chance had gone and he can reverse the form with Gstaad on Saturday.
He’s very much bred for a 2000 Guineas being by a former winner and out of Date With Destiny, the only foal of brilliant 2006 Guineas winner, George Washington, and having solely raced over seven furlongs he can improve again for the mile.
Appleby has won three of the last five renewals and had a short head second in another, too, and it’s fair to say the pendulum has swung in his favour and away from O’Brien when it comes to the Guineas.
It’s been another slow start for O’Brien, who hasn’t won the 2000 Guineas since 2019, and Appleby has had a much smoother spring with his Guineas team, Distant Storm pleasing in a public gallop at Newmarket two and a half weeks ago where Appleby was already pleased with his fitness levels.
With the unbeaten Bow Echo and O’Brien’s Gstaad disputing favouritism, Distant Storm has settled in the betting at 9/2 and those odds look perfectly fair with plenty in the locally-trained horse’s favour.
The Verdict: Back DISTANT STORM in the 15.35 Newmarket
Botanical to bloom in the Suffolk
Earlier on the card Karl Burke can win his second Betfred Suffolk Stakes in three years with BOTANICAL.
The ex-George Boughey-trained horse shaped nicely on his stable debut in the Lincoln, doing exceptionally well to finish fourth after being ridden aggressively on his own up front into a strong headwind by Sam James.
That suggests he retains all of his ability and he looks a gelding bordering on Group class, so he must have a fine chance sticking in handicap company off the same mark of 104.
Burke is excellent at identifying the right horses for this course and distance after winning the last two Cambridgeshires and it does look the ideal test for Botanical to show his best.
Second in a John Smith’s Cup off a rating of 107, he’s well capable in these top handicaps and a prominent ride from Clifford Lee over this nine furlongs could be just the ticket.
The Verdict: Back BOTANICAL in the 14.20 Newmarket
Chance the three-year-olds in Palace House
Asfoora is the star attraction in the Group 3 HKJC World Pool Palace House Stakes but she carries a penalty on her first run of the season and is probably worth taking on.
Away from her it’s a typically open sprint but the three-year-olds get 9lb on the weight-for-age and history tells us that’s a pretty handy concession.
Indeed, six three-year-olds have won this race since 1997 from light representation (41 have tried compared to 94 four-year-olds who have also won it six times in the same timeframe), giving them a healthy return when it comes to a wins to runners ratio.
Seven Questions was one of them at 33/1 two years ago and in a division that continues to baffle everyone the two runners from the Classic generation are worth backing.
BECKFORD’S FOLLY is easy enough to fancy at 14/1 given he won over the course and distance in the Cornwallis at two, while he was tenderly handled when beaten three lengths in the Abernant Stakes over six furlongs last time.
He should come on for that and a strong pace at this trip could be a good set up for him.
FIVE WAYS is a bigger price at 25/1, but he’s from a speedy family and he showed plenty of pace at two when winning twice at six furlongs in a Salisbury novice and a Kempton Group 3 where he had Beckford’s Folly beaten in behind.
Keen when a close-up fourth in the Middle Park afterwards, that form was boosted by Coppull at Ascot on Friday and when you watch that back you can only think dropping to five first time up is a good idea for this Kameko colt.
The Verdict: Back BECKFORD’S FOLLY and FIVE WAYS in the 14.55 Newmarket
Apollo can make punters over the moon
Finally, Double Rush has obvious claims in the Betfred Handicap over six furlongs given he looks to be thriving and is 8lb well in, but his dominance of the market has shunted some interesting horses out to big prices.
With that in mind I’ll have a small each-way bet on APOLLO ONE at 22/1, the reliable son of Equiano having an excellent record at this track.
Second and third in this race off marks of 100 and 97, he comes in here off 98 after dropping 11lb from the start of last season.
He was a short head second in a Group 3 at Ascot last October, though, so he might not be regressing as quickly as his falling mark suggests and he ran a good race in second in a Listed race on Dirt at Jebel Ali in February.
He had a busy campaign out in Dubai, so he shouldn’t be short of fitness coming into this and he can run his usual good race under Marco Ghiani.
The Verdict: Back APOLLO ONE in the 13.45 Newmarket
Preview posted at 16:40 BST on 01/05/26
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