Scottish Sun columnist and Racing TV analyst Ed Watson has three fancies on day two of Musselburgh’s Scottish Cheltenham Trials double-header.
THE BIG-RACE BET
FORGED WELL (15:05)
Rock My Way was impressive when taking apart Ascot’s Berkshire National and he will undoubtedly find the shallower waters of the £60,000 Edinburgh National easier to fish in, having found Haiti Couleurs and Co a bridge too far in the Welsh version five weeks ago.
Only one runner has lugged more than 11st to win Musselburgh’s longest race of the season in its eight-year existence, however. While that may be nothing more than coincidence given the relatively low sample size, I’m not convinced odds of around 5-2 are anything better than fair for Joe Tizzard’s top-weight, who has to concede upwards of 8lb all round and who has already shown his hand in long-distance events.
Rightly or wrongly, I’m drawn to last-time-out course winner FORGED WELL, who will be receiving 27lbs once Charlie Maggs’ 5lb claim is taken into account. That helps to negate much of the 7lb rise Martin Todhunter’s charge was handed for a four-and-three-quarter length defeat of Special Rate (runs 4:11 on Saturday) over just shy of 3m here before Christmas.
I liked the way he jumped on what was just his third go over fences. Pleasingly, he looked to have learned from a final-fence fall at Ayr the time before, rather than recoil from it. He’ll need to improve again moving up in grade, but he put that race to bed emphatically when asked and hit the line strongly. Still very much unexposed as a chaser, the step up to 4m has the potential to unlock more progress from this lightly-raced seven-year-old.
The Inside Track: “We had this race in the back of our minds, which was why we came here the last time to see if he handled the track, which he did. He needs to improve again, but we’ve got the best 5lb claimer in the country, he has a lovely weight and if you’re going to try 4m for the first time, Musselburgh is as good a place as any to do it. If Charlie can get him into a nice rhythm early on, my gut feeling is he’ll stay. ” - Martin Todhunter, trainer
THE BEST BET
DEARKEITHANDKATY (16:15)
The O’Neill family operation have found excellent opportunities for the hat-trick-seeking Koukeo (1:55) and DEARKEITHANDKATY, who can open his account at the third time of asking since switching to handicaps.
The five-year-old shaped better than his fourth-place finish at Worcester in October, then did nothing wrong when drawing clear with another rival and only going down narrowly in a stirring finish to a novice handicap at Carlisle three weeks later.
He’s gone up 5lb for that, which will no doubt be a source of frustration to connections. But that latter form, in particular, is strong for the grade, with the fifth home having won three times since, and the seventh and ninth both hitting the bullseye next time. This step up to 3m for the first time is likely to suit and this looks a moderate race for the grade, with precious few potential improvers in opposition.
The Inside Track: “I thought Dearkeithandkaty would win at Carlisle, but that was only a day or two before we stopped having runners because the horses were sick. It’s been a little while since he’s run but we think 3m around a track like Musselburgh will help him. He’s been a bit of a slow-burner up to now but, as he’s related to Kemboy, he’s bred to appreciate it.” - Jonjo O’Neill Jr, jockey
THE NEXT BEST
SONINGINO (15:40)
The cards haven’t fallen kindly for SONIGINO since he bolted up under top weight at Aintree more than two years ago, but he’s shown enough in two runs back this term to suggest he can cash in a very workable mark before long.
Sonigino raced with a little too much zest at Newbury in November on his return from nearly 600 days off, during which he’d undergone wind surgery. Nevertheless, he’d shaped with conspicuous encouragement until the third-last, where a mistake halted his progress and he was understandably not given a hard time thereafter.
With that pipe-opener under his belt, Paul Nicholls’ runner was arguably an unlucky loser at Sandown last time, where 7lb claimer Freddie Keighley’s inexperience showed as he attempted to burrow through a non-existent gap up the rail and ended up caught in a pocket as a result. By the time he got out and got rolling, the damage was done.
Three miles is a step into the unknown, so the first task for Freddie Gingell, who takes over in the saddle, will be to curb any early enthusiasm and get the nine-year-old settled into a nice rhythm. If he can, there’s every reason to think Sonigino can go close off a mark 5lb below his Aintree winning one, and 11lb below his peak of 143.
The Inside Track: “He ran really well at Sandown the last day, staying on really strongly and he gets to run off the same mark again, so he must have a nice chance in this. He was unlucky in some ways not to win at Sandown. Freddie Keighley made the wrong decision two out unfortunately, he just went the wrong side with horses coming back at him. If he’d had a clear run he would probably have very nearly won. I think 3m on a flat track will suit him nicely and it would be nice to qualify for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, so he must have a chance.” - Paul Nicholls, trainer & Betfair ambassador
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