The Sporting Life Racing Podcast team have some big-price fancies for Saturday's Al Basti Equiworld Dubai July Cup.
GRAHAM CUNNINGHAM - Satono Reve
I think Venetian Sun is a very good filly on top of the ground but she’s a high quality filly with a bit of juice in it. Given she won by a head and half-a-length in the Commonwealth Cup with Division third, I can’t quite get it into my head that she deserves to be 2/1 for a race like this.
I’ve gone through it in great detail. It's great that we have four Royal Ascot winners on deck in with the Wokingham, King Charles III and Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes winners all joining her.
I can’t imagine that’s ever happened before but the one I don’t particularly like is Mission Central. I thought the race in the King Charles III panned out absolutely perfect for him. He is a hold up horse with quirks and getting behind in the July Cup is generally not the ideal template.
So I’m lukewarm on him, not mad about the price on Venetian Sun and while Almeraq might still be improving, the one I want to win is SATONO REVE for Japan.
He’s excelled in defeat at two Royal Ascots now, they’ve kept him here for this, my good friend John Lees at the Daily Mirror tells me Christophe Lemaire is going to ride, he knows the horse well, and I hope he’s going to run another belter.
He’s only a fraction of a second away from having won two Group Ones at Royal Ascot, never mind one.
BILLY NASH – Double Rush
Mission Central has a leading chance and I’d expect him to run at least as well as he did at Ascot. I can see him going close but I think this is a deeper race than the King Charles III.
I have concerns about Venetian Sun but will be fascinated to see how DOUBLE RUSH gets on. We have seen it time and time again that good handicappers can make the transition into Group sprints with no hassle at all.
Double Rush has just been improving, improving and improving. To me the Wokingham was never in doubt, I thought he had that race in the bag from a long way out, off a mark of 105.
He’s still improving, still has a Timeform p attached to his rating and if I had to have a bet I think I’d come down on the side of him. He can improve a little bit again.
DAVID JOHNSON – Powerful Glory & Quinault
It’s fascinating there are four different winners from Royal Ascot coming here but you have to factor in the different track and the different way things play out at Newmarket.
Almeraq’s winning time in the Jubilee was 1m 11.82 seconds on good to firm ground. The last time the July Cup was run on good to firm ground, Alcohol Free won in 1:09.47. So usually you need to run the six furlongs two seconds quicker to win the July Cup on Saturday’s forecast ground.
That’s the equivalent of 40 or 50 yards so you have to think about how that might effect things. I feel we might get a bit of a shock on Saturday. I can see Satono Reve running well because he’s always up there but I do worry about this quicker track for both of the Haggas horses, Almeraq and Division. I don’t think the former would have been in the first three in the Jubilee 40 or 50 yards out so that’s a concern for him and I’m going to take a swing at a couple.
I’ve backed POWERFUL GLORY each-way, even allowing for the fact the track is a bit of a worry for him given the he way he won on QIPCO British Champions Day in the autumn but he’s a Group One winner two starts ago who can be backed at 40/1 or 50/1.
But even more interesting is QUINAULT. I don’t have to go into great detail about him, everyone knows all about him, but I like the fact Stuart Williams opted to swerve Royal Ascot to come here fresh as knowing the way he’s ridden, his strengths are going to be seen to much better effect on the July Course than they would have been at Ascot in a deeper field.
If he gets a decent draw he’s going to give it a real go from the front and I think he makes a lot of appeal at around 33/1 or 40/1.
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