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Value Bet Tips: Saturday, August 29
1pt win Ironwill in 14:00 Goodwood at 8/1 (General)
0.5pts e.w. Cash in 14:15 Sandown at 50/1 (BetVictor, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Rathgar in 14:35 Goodwood at 14/1 (General)
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Where there's a Will there's a way
It’s Virgin Bet Celebration Mile weekend at Goodwood, where there are some thundery showers expected which could make predicting the going quite difficult.
Seagulls Eleven doesn’t seem to care what conditions are like and Hugo Palmer’s course and distance winner would be my idea of the value call against three-year-old Zavateri, but it can’t be argued the market has missed him and there are other races to get stuck into on the card.
Bet of the day could be IRONWILL in the seven-furlong Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap.
He’s 4lb better off with the only other three-year-old in this field, Ghost Mode, Andrew Balding’s charge having beaten him a length and a quarter over the same course and distance at the big meeting right at the start of the month, and I reckon that’ll be enough to turn the tables seeing as the winner did him no favours by hanging quite badly in the closing stages on that occasion.
The Stuart Williams-trained Ironwill has since run a creditable enough race from stall 17 of 19 upped to a mile in a three-year-old-only contest at the Ebor Festival, and he didn’t exactly get a perfect trip up the home straight at York either.
I’m inclined to believe the son of Dark Angel remains in good heart, while he should appreciate the wet weather having bolted up on a soft surface when defying a penalty as a juvenile at Beverley last September.
He’s only a couple of pounds higher than when recording his sole success of this year on the July Course at Newmarket in July, and while on paper he’s again housed a little wider than might be ideal in stall 11, the inside isn’t always the place to be if the ground really does turn here.
Favourite Forty Years On, draw in two, is going to relish a bit of cut but she was hit hard by the handicapper for her seasonal debut success at Newbury in June and hasn’t been seen since so I’ll take her on resuming off 96 in a race of this nature.
RATHGAR isn’t the most obviously well-treated horse in the Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap but he’s got to be the bet on account of his versatility in terms of trip, ability to handle all types of terrain and the fact he looks like one of only two or three horses in the line-up expected to push the pace.
That should help give Jack Channon’s six-year-old a tactical leg-up and he’s the only previous Goodwood winner in the race, having scored twice here in the past including over a mile and three-quarters on heavy ground a couple of seasons ago.
He’s climbed the weights a bit for adding to his tally over 10 furlongs at Newbury and in Epsom’s City & Suburban Handicap earlier this campaign, but is only 4lb higher than when last successful and will be fine stepping back up to a mile and a half here.
On top of that, he’s only had half a dozen starts in the cheekpieces which appear to have really helped Rathgar take his form to the next level and I can’t let him go unbacked at such a big price, with William Haggas’s High Degree looking plenty short enough and Tony Montana unproven over quite this far.
Cash in at Sandown Park
The BetMGM Solario Stakes is the Sandown race likely to tell us most for the future, Rock Montreal heading up a bunch of promising juveniles going to post for the seven-furlong Group 3, but that’s not a very appealing race for a bet.
John & Thady Gosden’s So Regal could be worth taking a chance on back from a break in the BetMGM Atalanta Stakes, but the Zyn Frontrunner Finish Handicap features the kind of horses I’m more comfortable dealing with as we know plenty about this lot including the classy top-weight Crown Of Oaks, who shouldn’t be dismissed too quickly from a mark of 104.
Easing of the ground (rain forecast in Esher too) is going to play to this horse’s strengths and the drop in class from an Irish Group 3 on his sole start of 2026 to date looks a wise move.
King’s Charter is another big player under Toby Moore on his first outing since Meydan in March, with cheekpieces now applied to Charlie Appleby’s runner, but I quite like the mad prices available about CASH.
David Simcock’s grey is a seven-year-old now but he’s relatively lightly-raced for his age and the handicapper has given him a chance of being competitive having come down 9lb since the start of last season.
He showed he still had something to offer when second in a 14-runner handicap at Doncaster on his final outing of 2025 and while only tenth of 12 on his return to action this June, he was hampered at the start that day and Jamie Spencer wasn’t hard on him when it was clear his chance had gone.
Eased another 2lb in the weights, Cash can run off a career-low 99 here and it’s a venue we know he likes as he went close in the 2022 bet365 Classic Trial and put in a good effort in Listed company over the mile here a couple of years ago.
The son of Shamardal doesn’t want the ground too lively and I can overlook his wide draw to some extent as he’s the sort of horse to be tucked in early before coming with a run. Whether his legs have gone now and that late burst is a thing of the past has to be considered but it’s well woven into the 50/1 and I’ll have a small each-way interest.
Published at 16:00 BST on 28/08/26
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