Andrew McLaren steps into the Value Bet hotseat with three bets on the All-Weather Finals Day card at Newcastle.
Value Bet: Friday April 18
1pt win Saint Lawrence in 3.35 Newcastle at 20/1 (Paddy Power)
1pt win Power of Destiny in 4.07 Newcastle at 14/1 (Paddy Power)
1pt win Tribal Star in 4.42 Newcastle at 14/1 (Bet365, William Hill)
It’s an Easter feast of racing on Good Friday with All-Weather Finals Day at Newcastle and a card jam-packed with intriguing betting puzzles to get our teeth into.
The ITV action kicks off with the BetMGM All-Weather 3 Year Old Championships Handicap over 6f. Andrew Balding has won this race the last two years and has a strong hand again with three runners and of that trio, Marchogion looks the most interesting. He really caught the eye at Lingfield last time behind the reopposing So Darn Hot, finishing with plenty of running left to take third after getting caught too far back, but a high draw is often beneficial on the Newcastle straight and there looks to be plenty of pace drawn high here too, so stall three is enough to put me off backing him.
I’m in no rush to take on the favourites in the next two races – Cloud Cover (14:25) has strong claims of retaining her title in the Fillies' And Mares' and Roi De France (15:00) should take some beating back over a mile – but there are bets to be had later on the card, starting with SAINT LAWRENCE in the BetUK All-Weather Sprint Handicap.
He's winless since the 2023 Wokingham but has been mainly dining at the top end of the table since then with his next three starts all coming in Group 1 company, which included a close third in the Maurice de Gheest, and he’s acquitted himself well in top end handicaps from lofty marks on a number of occasions, too. This looks to have been his early season target for a while with three runs over this course and distance since making his belated all-weather debut in November and he seriously hinted at a return to top form here last time where he ran into major traffic problems but still finished a never-nearer seventh despite not getting the chance to fully unwind.
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That is his way – he’ll be dropped out again with Hollie Doyle praying the gaps appear – but if they do, he is a very well handicapped horse now (1lb lower than his Wokingham win) who is seemingly coming to the boil at the right time, and the 20/1 looks too big for a horse of his ability.
The BetUK All-Weather Easter Classic Middle Distance Handicap looks a cracking renewal with Glen Buck and Old Harrovian sure to be popular at the head of the market, but it’s POWER OF DESTINY who interests me at double-figure odds.
This Sea The Starts filly never fulfilled her potential when with Sir Michael Stoute but she made an impressive winning start for Ralph Beckett at Kempton in November where she quickened up well and seemed to really take to the all-weather surface there.
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She didn’t get home over the longer trip stepped up to 12f but very much caught the eye back over this distance when third in the Winter Oaks behind Charlotte’s Webb at Lingfield last time where the winner dictated things from the front and Power Of Destiny almost reeled her in with a late surge which saw her finish around half a second quicker than the winner over the final two furlongs.
A well-run race over this distance looks her optimum conditions and with Newcastle’s long straight sure to suit more than the tight turns of Lingfield, she looks a bet at 14/1 to continue her progression for Ralph Beckett.
Sea The Stars’ progeny have a terrific record on the Tapeta at Newcastle, 51 winners from 208 runners at a strike rate of 24.5% in fact, better than any other sire with 20+ runners here, and I’m sticking with that theme in the BetUK All-Weather Championships Marathon Handicap, the final race on the card, where I like TRIBAL STAR stepping up to two-miles for the first time, and I think that could be the key with this horse.
An ex-Godolphin inmate, he’s got some strong form in the book from his short time with Charlie Appleby. He had 100/1 Triumph Hurdle winner Poniros and the now 101-rated Align The Stars behind him when second at Chelmsford, and finished half a length behind Imperial Sovereign, now rated 96, at Kempton, so a mark of 86 for Tribal Star looks workable on that evidence.
Now with Adrian McGuinness, he ran a cracker from the front over an inadequate trip at Dundalk last time, just going down to a progressive rival as Annaghmccanns picked him off late on. That should have teed him up perfectly for this, and he’s got plenty of form on the all-weather with his last four runs coming at Dundalk.
He is bred to thrive over staying trips and there could be significant improvement to come now he finally goes beyond 12 furlongs, so I’m happy to take any double-figure odds on offer.
Preview posted at 1455 BST on 17/04/2025
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