Sky Bet’s Head Racing Compiler Richard Horner has priced up his 20th and final Randox Health Grand National for the company. He gives his thoughts on the 40 runners.
Anibale Fly: The class horse of the race having been placed in the last two Cheltenham Gold Cups. He ran a fine race in last year's National when fourth and another good run is on the cards although he has to carry top weight and from a 5lb higher handicap mark than in 2018. That would be enough to put me off him for win purposes.
Valtor: A French recruit to the Nicky Henderson yard who has only had the two runs for the stable. His first at Ascot resulted in a very impressive win and a big hike up the handicap, followed by a poor run in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham. Given a break since and said to have schooled very well over National type fences last week, he should go well for a long way under the excellent Daryl Jacob but the fear is he showed his hand too soon at Ascot. There will be better handicapped horses than him on Saturday.
Tiger Roll: A fantastic horse who has won at four Cheltenham Festivals and landed this ace last season. He looks to have come back better than ever this term judging by his romp in the Cross Country Chase at this season's Festival. He races from a 9lb higher handicap mark compared to last year so it will be tough for him but he has a massive chance again . The only current downside for punters is the price and he looks sure to be the shortest price horse in the National for many years.
Outlander: A Grade One winner in the past but he appears on the decline now and his owners Gigginstown House Stud allowed him to leave for £165,000 at Thursday's Goffs Aintree Sale. Would you sell a horse if you thought it was going to win the National? Now runs for Gowing's Eleven and Richard Spencer.
Don Poli: Another one offered for sale this week by Gigginstown and similar to Outlander in that he was once a very useful horse but it’s two years ago since he ran a decent race and very unlikely to feature at the business end here. Despite that he cost Darren Yates £170,000 and has joined Phil Kirby.
Go Conquer: Usually a very good jumper and not hard to see him running well for a long way. Arrives here in good form after a win in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster last time. He has been given a 6lb rise up the handicap for that win and that, plus the big question mark over his stamina, are enough to put me off him.
Mala Beach: Ridden by top amateur Jamie Codd and goes really well on soft ground so the recent rain will help although he looks held on form by stablemate Jury Duty on his last race at Down Royal so hard to see him winning but could run ok.
Minella Rocco: Will have no problem with the trip as a previous winner of the four miler at the Cheltenham Festival but he is a very hard horse to predict these days. Hasn’t been the most reliable jumper of a fence and can throw in a stinker like he did last time out at Cheltenham when running no sort of race in the Ultima. Couldn’t back with any confidence
Lake View Lad: A great servant for his small yard and after winning his first two starts this season he was put away for a crack at the Ultima at Cheltenham where he ran a cracker to finish third. Would love the rain that fell on Thursday as he goes really well on a soft surface and in with a fair chance of giving owner Trevor Hemmings yet another National winner.
Pleasant Company: Just denied in last year's National by Tiger Roll and meets him again on 2lb better terms so has a chance to reverse that form if running as well again. Looks to have had his season pointed towards this race and another good run is expected but stable jockey Ruby Walsh has opted for Rathvinden this time around
Ballyoptic: Will have no problem with the trip as he stayed well when just touched off in last year's Scottish National and if he gets into a good rhythm with his jumping he could run very well at big price. That said he did run very poorly when last seen at Haydock in February.
Dounikos: Comes here in good form after a win last-time-out at Punchestown in a race where he was well ridden and with a 7lb rise up the handicap and a sterner stamina test on Saturday, he won’t find things as easy here.
Rathvinden: Showed his guts and stamina to win the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in 2018 and this race has clearly been targeted ever since. Just the one race this season resulted in a cosy win in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, the same route trainer Willie Mullins used for his 2005 winner Hedgehunter . Ruby Walsh takes over for the big one and if taking to the fences and putting in a clear round it's hard to see him not been involved in the finish. He gets my vote.
One For Arthur: The impressive National winner in 2017 has had problems since and has only managed two runs in two years, unseating rider on both occasions. There were signs at Haydock last time that he still has plenty of ability and he is said to have worked very well recently. With conditions no problem he looks set to run another big race if jumping as he previously did in his two races over these fences.
Rock The Kasbah: Usually runs well when fresh so the near four month break will help and he has been trained specially for this race . He has some good pieces of form to his name including a win around Cheltenham in November and second in last season's Bet 365 Gold Cup and Sandown. Has the advantage of been ridden by champion jockey Richard Johnson and should go well if taking to the fences.
Warriors Tale: A winner around here in December in the Grand Sefton but that race is over a mile-and-a-half shorter than this and as he appeared not to stay in the National last year. Friday's Topham looked a more obvious target.
Regal Encore: Finished eighth behind One for Arthur in the 2017 renewal so has experience around the course but is slightly in-and0out and still on a mark 2lb higher than he was there despite just one victory since. Could see him getting round again but an unlikely winner for me.
Magic Of Light: Ran OK when seventh at Cheltenham last time but suspect she is held by her handicap mark and stable jockey Robbie Power, who has ridden her the last nine times she has run, has jumped ship onto Jury Duty.
A Toi Phil: Ran a nice race over hurdles in the Pertemps Final last time, a path used by Pineau De Re before he won this in 2014, and he is a better horse over fences. Could go well at a price although jockey Jack Kennedy is likely to have had the option of riding him and seemingly prefers Dounikos.
Jury Duty: Looks primed for this and with Robbie Power on board he has a lot in his favour here . The only slight concern would be his run at Cheltenham last year in the National hunt chase won by Rathvinden when he appeared not to get home over four miles. There may have been another reason for that but he does have to prove his stamina and wouldn’t want any more rain.
Noble Endeavor: Has had his problems and only two runs since April 2017. He had a sighter over these fences in December and ran OK at Cheltenham last time. Capable on his day and no doubt primed for Saturday, it would be no surprise to see him improve on what he has done so far this season but still would be a big one if he actually won.
Monbeg Notorious: Been a bit disappointing in his three runs this season but there was some improvement in his latest start at Naas. Sean Bowen is an usual booking for this yard but he will do well to get enough out of his partner to win this .
Ramses De Teillee: Likeable and consistent grey who is on a mark he can go well off after fine seconds in the Welsh National and the Haydock Trial. My concern would be his age of seven as historically they have a very poor record in the National and he has that stat to overcome.
Tea For Two: Twice a Grade One winner in the past for one of the two lady jockeys competing in the race, Lizzie Kelly. On that form he would have a chance. The handicapper has given him a break with a mark of 149 but he hasn’t shown anything like his best in recent runs and his latest was unseating this jockey in the Cross-Country Chase at Cheltenham. Hard to see him winning here.
Step Back: An impressive winner of the Bet365 Chase at Sandown last year for which he finds himself off a 12lb higher mark here. Not been in the same form in his two runs this season but likely to have been trained for this and his forward style of racing and sound jumping should see him go very well for a long way.
Ultragold: Has a great record over the National fences, winning the Topham for the past two seasons. However that is over a much shorter distance and this big step up in trip doesn’t look ideal . He also has a poor run at Cheltenham last time to put behind him so although likely to love the fences again, there are reasons to take him on
Blow By Blow: Jockey Andrew Ring gets a big ride here and good luck to him as he will need it. This one looks like he is making up the numbers judging by his past three runs.
Up For Review: Travelled like a dream in the Ultima at Cheltenham and looked the winner before a bad mistake three out stopped him in his tracks. He weakened to finish eighth. Looks the stable's third string on jockey bookings and there has to be a doubt about him getting home over this marathon trip.
Singlefarmpayment: Usually a consistent if frustrating type who likes been placed more than winning . He normally runs very well at Cheltenham but ran a shocker last time, never really jumping or travelling. I couldn’t support him after that run.
Vieux Lion Rouge: Seems to save his best for Aintree these days but appeared to not stay the trip in the three previous runs in this race and no real reason to expect any different this time around. He did run very well in the Becher in December when second from this mark but a win at the fourth attempt at the race is unlikely.
Valseur Lido: Ridden by the best lady jockey in years in Rachael Blackmore and hopefully she will get a good tune out of him for a long way here. He is 14lb lower in the handicap than when a distant eighth in the race last year but appeared to struggle with the stamina test that day and a similar performance is likely despite the drop down the handicap.
Vintage Clouds: Just missed the cut for the race last year but gets in with a nice weight this time around and will be a leading fancy after a big run at the Cheltenham Festival when second in the Ultima behind Beware The Bear. Able to race from the same mark here so he is well in and if in the same form must hold a big chance.
General Principle: The winner of last year's Irish National which is a good trial for this one usually and is reunited with jockey JJ Slevin for the first time since that day. Has a poor run at Cheltenham to overcome but has the potential to run a big race if taking to the fences and in the right mood.
Livelovelaugh: Ran OK in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last time but appeared to struggle with the trip that day and a step up in distance didn't look what he needed. He gets that here.
Walk In The Mill: Winner of the Becher over these fences in December, he's had a couple of prep races over hurdles to prime him for the big day. A 7lb rise up the weights was just enough to get him in and if in the same form as before Christmas, he has the credentials to go very well.
Folsom Blue: An unlucky loser when hampered in the Irish National, he comes here after a tough run in the Midlands version less than three weeks ago. Hopefully that hasn’t taken the edge off him here. The more rain the better and on his best form could definitely be in with a shout
Captain Redbeard: In decent form recently but has had three attempts over the National fences, including when unseating his rider in the big one last year. Couldn’t back with any confidence.
Bless The Wings: Ran a blinder last year at the age of 13 to finish third behind Tiger Roll but looks on the decline now. Unless the fences perk him up for one last hurrah, it's hard to see him repeating his 2018 heroics. Has been a great servant to connections.
Joe Farrell: It has possibly surprised connections that he crept into the race and not sure they would have run him only a fortnight ago if they had known. At that stage they may have really been eyeing up a return to Ayr for the Scottish National which he won last season. Having said that if in the same form as at Newbury, he is handicapped to go well still.
Just A Par: Got into this following the defection of Mall Dini but was beaten a long way in the Becher here for new connections and likely to be a similar story again.
VERDICT: RATHVINDEN can give the Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh team with another win here as he has the right sort of profile and if jumping well and having the luck needed, he has a big chance. Two at bigger prices I expect to run well would be the 2017 winner One for Arthur and Becher Chase hero Walk In The Mill. Of course you can’t rule out last year's winners Tiger Roll.
1st Rathvinden
2nd One for Arthur
3rd Tiger Roll
4th Walk In The Mill
5th Step Back