Matt Brocklebank nailed the Grand Annual winner Maskada at 25/1 on Wednesday and started today with another at 11/1. Get his remaining selection.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced well over 100pts profit.
- His winners this year include Aucunrisque in the Betfair Hurdle at 14/1, Saturday’s 11/1 Wolverhampton pick Dubai Station, Wednesday's Grand Annual winner Maskada at 25/1, and Stage Star at 11/1
Value Bet tips: Thursday, March 16
1pt win Stage Star in 1.30 Cheltenham at 11/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Captain Morgs in 2.10 Cheltenham at 16/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Champagne Gold in 4.10 Cheltenham at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Beauport in 5.30 Cheltenham at 10/1 (General)
Already advised antepost
1pt win Saint Sam in 3.30 Cheltenham at 14/1 (NR)
Thursday at Cheltenham is highly likely to be the busiest punting day for this column and, without wishing to go around the houses, I’ll fast-forward straight to one of the strongest handicap fancies of the week which is BEAUPORT in the concluding Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase.
He’s looked to be itching for a big field and a step up in distance since winning the Listed Colin Parker Memorial Chase on his seasonal debut and first public outing over the bigger obstacles in October, but the experience gained in small-field novice events since Carlisle should stand him in really good stead now he finally gets the chance.
On the face of it, he was disappointing when fourth of five behind Wednesday’s Brown Advisory winner The Real Whacker in the ‘Dipper’ when last seen, but it’s worth stressing he was giving weight away to everything in the field there and couldn’t quite find a jumping rhythm, with the winner dictating matters and putting them all to the sword with his accurate leaps out in front.
Beauport was beautifully campaigned en route to winning the 2021 EBF Final at Sandown as a five-year-old and evidently comes good this time of the year as he was back at it last March too when seeing off Boothill to win a nice race at Uttoxeter (soft).
His hurdles rating went from 142 to 148 on the back of that effort and he was a fair fourth off the higher mark stepped up to three miles at Aintree the following month.
So he’s totally unexposed as a stayer, loves nothing more than testing ground and gets in here off 143 which should be well within range, especially as we’re probably only really scratching the surface with Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge.
Double-figure odds should be snapped up.
Earlier on, I’m going to take a chance against Mighty Potter in the Turners Novices’ Chase, on the basis that STAGE STAR looks a shade over-priced.
Mighty Potter had the best form already, and it’s not looking any worse following Gaillard Du Mesnil’s National Hunt Chase success on Tuesday either, but he still reaches for the odd fence and anyone looking to take him on need only refer to his lifeless effort in last year’s Sky Bet Supreme.
He had his excuses on the day (got stirred up beforehand and made a bad early blunder – not to mention the quality of the opposition) but it’s still a PU by his name the only time he’s run at the track, and Stage Star, who flopped not only here but also at Aintree last spring when reported to have been suffering from stomach ulcers, buried his own Cheltenham hatched over course and distance when last seen.
Paul Nicholls’ charge was a Grade 1 winner as a novice hurdler and looks to have improved at least another 10-12lb based on his Timeform Novices’ Chase success here on Trials Day, when cantering all over the field in a prominent position before readily holding Datsalrightgino nearly four lengths at bay.
He was giving 2lb to the runner-up, who has since run a very decent race when second to Solo in the Pendil, so - as is typical for the race - that Timeform-backed January event looks very respectable form.
It’s a bold move by connections to have a shot at the Grade 1 at this trip, as they were weighing up Wednesday’s Brown Advisory as well as the Plate, but it might just pay off as I have a feeling Harry Cobden won’t be pestered if looking to make the running, in which case he’ll be difficult to reel in providing he jumps as he did the last day.
I was contemplating backing one of the French horses in the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle but can give the race a miss and it’s a murky picture in that division at the moment, while I won’t be opposing Luccia in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle.
So Scottish has been one of the antepost gambles of the whole Festival but this year’s Magners Plate Handicap Chase looks as good as I can remember and anyone steaming into Emmet Mullins’ horse at relatively skinny prices must be content with the fact he could run the race of his life and still finish fourth or fifth.
If Janidil gets even close to Shishkin in the Ryanair Chase – and it’s certainly not out of the question – then Plate top-weight Haut En Couleurs is rightly going to prove even more popular under rider-of-the-moment Michael O’Sullivan.
The Willie Mullins-trained six-year-old was in with every chance of winning the Grade 2 before falling at the last fence at Thurles on his penultimate start, and he was beaten just over a length by stablemate Janidil in the Red Mills at Gowran last month. A BHA mark of 157 might not be beyond him yet.
He does help keep the weights down for some of those rated around the 150-mark, though, and Midnight River must have a big chance after his win here on New Year’s Day. He’d run extremely well when third behind two more Ryanair contenders in Ga Law and French Dynamite in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, but the switch to the New Course and much softer ground really played to his strengths last time.
He's a major threat but isn’t exactly being missed in the market, which I think could be the case with CHAMPAGNE GOLD.
Henry De Bromhead was always going to get the best out of this horse over fences, even if the first two attempts at the discipline didn’t yield a great deal when first starting out two seasons ago.
He seemed to lose his way back over hurdles after that last season, but the addition of cheekpieces has really helped and his form since reverting to fences last summer has been progressing nicely.
He won a minor event at Wexford, a race which threw up five individual winners of 10 subsequent races between them, before finishing third in a Grade 3 novice at Galway, while it was the novices’ handicap second here in October that really caught the eye as he stayed on nicely after appearing to find the Old Course plenty sharp enough on good ground.
He goes very well fresh so looks to have been kept on the back-burner for the spring, has his ground conditions and is definitely lurking on a dangerous mark now he’s got his mojo back.
Rachael Blackmore prefers the totally unexposed stablemate Marvel De Cerisy, but Aidan Coleman isn’t a bad stand-in and he rode Champagne Gold over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival last April.
The Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle is also really wide open and while David Pipe’s Thanksforthehelp sets all the alarm bells ringing as a promising six-year-old seemingly laid out for the big day, I’m always a bit wary when any horse shows the kind of improvement he displayed when sauntering home at Chepstow.
He’s been hit hard by the handicapper – up 11lb in one fell swoop – and he’ll have to prove that he can find plenty off the bridle here as he hadn’t always been the strongest of finishers in the past.
Good Time Johnny made the shortlist as Tony Martin has always held him in very high regard, while it’s not hard to take a positive view about Walking On Air in light of his Exeter success, but the latter’s stable companion CAPTAIN MORGS appeals more at the odds.
Nicky Henderson has a bit of a bad habit of blowing their marks on the way to the Final of this series and I’m fully aware that might be the case with this horse too, but he was absolutely deadly when stepped up to three miles for the first time here at the International meeting back in December.
After tanking into contention, he really went through with his effort when asked to quicken and he’s obviously completely unexposed as a stayer after just the one go.
It was also his first try in cheekpieces too so they’re understandably retained, and a 7lb rise to a mark of 141 looks perfectly manageable given the fact he’s still only seven and has shown some classy handicap form over shorter distances in the past.
He’ll go on soft ground too and just looks to have a very solid chance at a perfectly fair price.
Preview posted at 1600 GMT on 15/03/23
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