Our man focuses on Wednesday's two hugely competitive handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival, with two recommendations in the Coral Cup.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced +99.40pts profit.
- His winners this year include Aucunrisque in the Betfair Hurdle at 14/1 and Saturday’s 11/1 Wolverhampton pick Dubai Station.
Value Bet tips: Wednesday, March 15
1pt e.w. Sa Fureur in 2.50 Cheltenham at 14/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Icare Allen in 2.50 Cheltenham at 28/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Maskada in 4.50 Cheltenham at 25/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Take two in compelling Coral Cup puzzle
Day two at the Cheltenham Festival and it promises to be an absolute belter for Willie Mullins, who declared no fewer than 22 runners across the day’s seven races.
Almost half of those (10 to be precise) are in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper which isn’t a massive shock but what may be slightly surprising is that one for the master of Closutton seems to be a shade underestimated in one of Wednesday’s two big handicaps.
The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle is arguably the biggest and best betting race of the entire week as it’s packed full of horses plotted up for the day right from the start of the season – or, in the case of Benson, just 11 days ago after he came from the clouds to win the Morebattle at Kelso and tee up a shot at landing the £100,000 bonus.
It’ll be tough for Sandy Thomson’s horse, but he’s clearly never been better and there’s no doubt he handles plenty of cut.
Benson’s probably no more than fairly priced, however, and the same can now be said of Martin Brassil’s An Epic Song, who looks more like one of those longer-term Coral Cup projects having had an uncannily similar preparation – two runs over inadequate trips before the tongue-tie is applied for Cheltenham – to last year’s short-head runner-up for the very same connections (Fastorslow).
The addition of cheekpieces for this one suggests Brassil is keen to leave no stoned unturned, just in case it gets tight again right at the death.
An Epic Song has been extremely well backed from 33/1 in places in midweek, while the likes of HMS Seahorse, and Punchestown one-two San Salvador and Captain Conby, also have obvious claims in conditions they’re expected to handle.
Watch House Cross would be a danger to all if Rachael Blackmore somehow manages to get loose on the front end (looks unlikely on paper), while the one towards the head of the market I’m far less sweet on is the admittedly well-treated – but largely frustrating – Camprond.
In the second silks of JP McManus it is ICARE ALLEN who looks to be sitting on a huge run for that man Mullins.
After landing the Grade 2 Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle last February, he went on to be fourth in the Triumph Hurdle here but fluffed his lines at the Easter meeting back at Fairyhouse and was subsequently put away for the summer.
He didn’t return until December when he produced a really encouraging effort (7/2 favourite) in third on handicap debut at Fairyhouse, before reappearing in last month’s Betfair Hurdle at Newbury where the unseasonably quick ground was put forward as an excuse for his low-key performance and moderate jumping.
Not only will he find conditions at Cheltenham much more to his liking, Icare Allen is begging for a step up in trip and it’s remarkable Mullins has been able to resist this long given he’s by Cocoriko, whose progeny nearly always seem to improve for a trip (think Fakiera, Coco Beach, Fifty Ball and more).
Icare Allen finally gets his chance over an intermediate trip, with plenty of juice underfoot, and the return of Mark Walsh could be huge for the five-year-old too as he was on board throughout all of his juvenile campaign and looks to get on with him particularly well.
I recently argued the case for Gordon Elliott’s novice SA FUREUR in the Martin Pipe, so it’s interesting to see him running here instead and he’s also worth a bet at current odds.
Sa Fureur appeared to really click with Davy Russell the one time they teamed up in a Punchestown maiden three starts ago – the jockey’s first winner back from his short-lived retirement – so connections must be delighted he’s made the cut for this rather than have to wait for Friday and the conditionals’ race.
The six-year-old made quite heavy weather of completing a hat-trick in a Grade 3 at Thurles just 20 days ago but I suspect he’s just that sort of horse and will never do anything too impressively. He’s got plenty of size and scope about him, though, and certainly won’t be bullied about in this big-field scenario against more seasoned campaigners.
His best asset is probably his jumping (half-brother to chase winners King’s Odyssey and Sandymount Rose) but he basically looks to be going handicapping for the first time on a very workable mark and will love the testing ground.
De Bromhead's recruit going under the radar
The easy-to-back Good Land is the closest I came to recommending a bet in any of the non-handicap races elsewhere on the card, but Mullins holds the aces here too and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Impaire Et Passe emerges as the yard’s main Champion Hurdle candidate for next year.
This year’s Grand Annual Handicap Chase has a rather odd look to it with, with most of the progressive unexposed ones who were lurking in the antepost markets failing to actually make the final field for the race.
The Mullins-trained Dinoblue could be the exception as she’s taken to chasing perfectly well this season and might be a step or two ahead of the British assessors having been allotted a mark of 140.
I prefer my Grand Annual bet to have a bit more experience, though, and last year’s one-two Global Citizen and Andy Dufresne both have something to recommend them, not least the ability to go through bad ground.
Gordon Elliott’s horse is 3lb better off for a three-length defeat here 12 months ago and could well exact his revenge, but it’s another Irish-trained runner – MASKADA – who I think is sneaking into it under the radar.
The fact she ran for three seasons over here for Stuart Edmunds is probably counting in her favour as the handicappers clearly thinks they’ve a good handle on her overall ability (runs off just 2lb higher than current Irish mark), but there’s little doubt Henry De Bromhead has already extracted a bit more improvement from the sizeable mare.
He threw her straight into a Grade 1 novice at the Punchestown Festival on her debut for the yard in April where she ran alright behind Blue Lord, and she gained compensation for a comeback fall at Fairyhouse (travelling well when hitting two-out) to win a nice pot at Limerick over Christmas.
Maskada comfortably beat subsequent dual winner Rebel Gold that day and although the quicker conditions, combined with a step up to two miles and five furlongs at the Dublin Racing Festival, didn’t play to her strengths at all last time, the lesser effort at Leopardstown means we’re getting an inflated price here.
She’s got loads of strong two-mile form from her time in Britain and a strongly-run race on soft ground could set things up beautifully for her.
Preview posted at 1600 GMT on 14/03/23
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